NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chargers (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba753ac6829278d810ad1235f2eff6a774ab16547f0314b85e368b6be7ece441

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Chargersof Chargers, Raiders
Resolved: Sep 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $288,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $290,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,661 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Chargers	48c	100,000$47,616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52,383.95	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Raiders	52c	99,651$51,993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51,993.38	418	51.9%217 W · 201 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Chargers	48c	85,450$40,866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44,583.76	181	56.9%103 W · 78 L	+11.8wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Raiders	52c	60,000$31,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31,199.97	312	40.7%127 W · 185 L	-22.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Raiders	53c	46,264$24,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,457.47	105	66.7%70 W · 35 L	+12.6wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Chargers	46c	41,255$19,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,115.37	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Raiders	54c	23,915$12,914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,914.1	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Chargers	47c	20,000$9,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,600	246	52%128 W · 118 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Raiders	53c	14,885$7,889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,889.1	99	44.4%44 W · 55 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Chargers	47c	11,701$5,495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,205.73	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Raiders	53c	10,417$5,521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,521.01	446	52.9%236 W · 210 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Chargers	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,600	358	48.6%174 W · 184 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Raiders	53c	5,000$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,625	89	59.6%53 W · 36 L	+7.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Raiders	53c	5,000$2,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,650	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Raiders	53c	5,000$2,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,650	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Raiders	51c	4,000$2,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,049.99	266	50.8%135 W · 131 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…822ebacked Chargers	49c	3,050$1,495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,555.73	25	56%14 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Raiders	53c	2,132$1,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,130	257	44.4%114 W · 143 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1e…2e41backed Chargers	47c	2,072$974 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,098.34	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Chargers	47c	1,961$922 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,039.46	320	50.9%163 W · 157 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Raiders	53c	1,350$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.5	114	46.5%53 W · 61 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked Raiders	53c	1,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…59e4backed Chargers	54c	925.93$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.93	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.34per pick	33cpaid	+54.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Raiders	53c	850$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.5	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Raiders	24c	748.74$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.76	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Raiders	51c	723.76$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.12	245	51%125 W · 120 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…9926backed Chargers	49c	612.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.24	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Chargers	47c	600$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318	106	24.5%26 W · 80 L	-12.6wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Chargers	48c	600$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Chargers	48c	520.83$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.83	96	57.3%55 W · 41 L	+6.5wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Chargers	49c	510.2$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.2	143	44.1%63 W · 80 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Raiders	54c	500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Raiders	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	-8.5wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc0b8…9272backed Chargers	47c	415.15$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.03	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Raiders	52c	368.75$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.75	343	49.3%169 W · 174 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Chargers	49c	306.12$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.12	208	51%106 W · 102 L	+12.1wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Chargers	48c	289$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.28	143	66.4%95 W · 48 L	+13.0wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c86…cd2bbacked Raiders	28c	275.47$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac0…b10abacked Chargers	54c	267$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.82	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Chargers	49c	256.16$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.16	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked Chargers	47c	225$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.5	143	37.8%54 W · 89 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Chargers	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	+5.6wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Chargers	46c	217.18$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.18	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Raiders	53c	214$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.42	110	47.3%52 W · 58 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3846…3b9abacked Chargers	47c	213$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.89	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+4.6wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Chargers	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	104	67.3%70 W · 34 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dff…2a13backed Chargers	48c	212.5$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.5	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Chargers	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked Chargers	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed1f…afd7backed Raiders	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	75%15 W · 5 L	+4.7wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Chargers	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Raiders	52c	191$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.08	304	42.4%129 W · 175 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Raiders	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	44.9%89 W · 109 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Chargers	48c	185.42$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.42	50	62%31 W · 19 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x887c…e405backed Chargers	49c	172.73$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.09	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-3.6wins	-0.32per pick	51cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Chargers	74c	166.63$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.12	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Raiders	54c	145$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.3	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5340…5e2bbacked Chargers	48c	125$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	107	50.5%54 W · 53 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Chargers	62c	120$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.6	173	59%102 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked Raiders	53c	113.21$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b5e…4167backed Chargers	48c	112.85$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.68	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead9…cc72backed Raiders	53c	103.77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3df6…4992backed Chargers	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-5.0wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Raiders	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	117	40.2%47 W · 70 L	-10.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7247…552cbacked Chargers	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25ad…46fcbacked Chargers	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Chargers	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	90	52.2%47 W · 43 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b4b…94d4backed Raiders	53c	94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.82	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8b…bff8backed Chargers	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	70	65.7%46 W · 24 L	+9.8wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecf5…6a01backed Chargers	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Chargers	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Chargers	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4eff…8490backed Raiders	57c	71.96$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.6wins	-0.21per pick	57cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Raiders	54c	62.5$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Chargers	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	310	32.6%101 W · 209 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab9…c906backed Raiders	53c	55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.15	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+5.0wins	+0.17per pick	47cpaid	+38%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x49ae…7ab8backed Chargers	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee0…21f8backed Chargers	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+4.0wins	+0.31per pick	54cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c82…0d7dbacked Chargers	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Chargers	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	227	45.4%103 W · 124 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41c6…fda4backed Raiders	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	53cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Chargers	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	160	48.1%77 W · 83 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe72…900fbacked Chargers	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Chargers	48c	31.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x292a…66c1backed Chargers	48c	31.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Raiders	55c	24.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Chargers (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event