NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc22d73146b011a030f32760635d2ced9187ded4d2d533be2edcd2734559f80de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Chargers, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Raiders | 55c | 7,865$4,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315.55 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Chargers | 45c | 7,760$3,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,268 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Raiders | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Chargers | 42c | 3,929$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.57 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chargers | 42c | 3,203$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.62 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…46a3backed Raiders | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chargers | 42c | 1,039$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.52 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Raiders | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ab…fbb5backed Raiders | 58c | 202.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chargers | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Raiders | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…6096backed Chargers | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders | 56c | 92.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Chargers | 44c | 88.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Chargers | 43c | 62.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Chargers | 43c | 59.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Raiders | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…7a58backed Chargers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)this page
- Chargers vs. RaidersChargers won
- Chargers vs. Raiders: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Raiders: O/U 45.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Raiders: O/U 46.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Raiders: O/U 47.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Raiders: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.