College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-20.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6138afcc2c74b5145aa72dafce118380ddf77999f40645acbe262bb9515884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Purdueof USC, Purdue
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed USC | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Purdue | 48c | 970.37$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.59 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked USC | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Purdue | 48c | 423.08$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed USC | 50c | 303$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Purdue | 50c | 205$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Purdue | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Purdue | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Purdue | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Purdue | 52c | 57.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…21f8backed Purdue | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-20.5)this page
- USC vs. PurdueUSC won
- USC vs. Purdue: O/U 59.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.