UFC · resolved market
Erosa vs. Costa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6964e7a107849329d95cff08e574c64d6a2142cf549479c3caaaf51989f1b5ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Costaof Erosa, Costa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Costa | 61c | 15,784$9,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,227.13 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Erosa | 40c | 9,899$3,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,938.54 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Erosa | 39c | 4,936$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.66 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Erosa | 40c | 3,820$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.52 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Erosa | 38c | 2,317$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.46 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Erosa | 38c | 2,173$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Costa | 63c | 1,994$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Costa | 68c | 1,475$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Costa | 59c | 1,180$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.95 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Costa | 61c | 1,150$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Erosa | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Costa | 61c | 984.57$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.57 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c3…611abacked Costa | 61c | 912.67$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Erosa | 32c | 878.9$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Costa | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Erosa | 37c | 707.33$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.71 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Erosa | 41c | 583.46$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Costa | 60c | 514.86$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.94 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Erosa | 41c | 503$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.51 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Erosa | 33c | 502.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.94 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Costa | 61c | 420$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Erosa | 38c | 394.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Erosa | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Costa | 60c | 358$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Costa | 61c | 317.74$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Costa | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Erosa | 41c | 249.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Costa | 72c | 242.64$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Costa | 61c | 230.55$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Erosa | 21c | 226.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Costa | 72c | 220$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Erosa | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Costa | 60c | 199.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Erosa | 40c | 180$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Erosa | 23c | 172.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bf90backed Costa | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Erosa | 38c | 148$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Costa | 62c | 143.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Erosa | 40c | 139.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Costa | 59c | 136$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Erosa | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Costa | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…25eebacked Erosa | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Erosa | 41c | 85.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Costa | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Costa | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Costa | 79c | 79.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Costa | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Erosa | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Erosa | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Costa | 62c | 56.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Costa | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Erosa | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Erosa | 38c | 48.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Erosa | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Erosa | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0646backed Costa | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Erosa | 41c | 29.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Costa | 61c | 26.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked Costa | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…9c65backed Costa | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…dc1abacked Costa | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025f…c1cfbacked Costa | 65c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Costa | 61c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Erosa vs. Costathis page
- Burns vs. MoralesMorales won
- Gordon vs. MoisésGordon won
- Green vs. CamiloGreen won
- Park vs. HernandezPark won
- Pennington vs. PinheiroPennington won
- Reed vs. GomesGomes won
- Santos vs. LisboaSantos won
- Stoltzfus vs. RuziboevRuziboev won
- Yusuff vs. SantosSantos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.