TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Stoltzfus vs. Ruziboev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ruziboevof Stoltzfus, Ruziboev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x832d…d420backed Ruziboev73c7,215$5,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.187656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Stoltzfus32c5,572$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7885870.7%41 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Stoltzfus27c5,331$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.536829.4%20 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Stoltzfus28c5,171$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.633253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Stoltzfus31c4,881$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5134833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Ruziboev68c4,485$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.2235253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Ruziboev71c4,219$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.05988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick75cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Stoltzfus32c4,050$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.9935826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…8687backed Ruziboev73c3,394$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.62875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+31.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Ruziboev69c3,363$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.4322259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Stoltzfus30c3,334$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Ruziboev72c2,501$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.174151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Stoltzfus30c2,099$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.9813039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stoltzfus28c1,897$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.3518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a7…530ebacked Ruziboev70c1,614$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.06966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Ruziboev69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.289241.3%38 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Stoltzfus4c1,332$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.846943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Stoltzfus29c1,067$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3614129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Stoltzfus28c981.14$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.3111540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Ruziboev67c923.67$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.4210443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Ruziboev73c820.27$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.2735664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Stoltzfus25c748.73$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.186552.3%34 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c3…611abacked Ruziboev72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0c9…6538backed Ruziboev72c695.14$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.64475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Ruziboev72c694.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.443158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ruziboev71c637.58$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9653956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Ruziboev72c625$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17535539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Ruziboev72c560$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.839959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Stoltzfus29c520.3$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.214751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Stoltzfus32c501$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.414929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Ruziboev72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14012159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Stoltzfus32c469$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0810452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stoltzfus39c441$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.929336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…3600backed Ruziboev72c440.85$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.441770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Ruziboev70c425$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b28…95fcbacked Ruziboev72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.671172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Stoltzfus28c372.57$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3213953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Stoltzfus28c371.07$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Stoltzfus28c350$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9821044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Stoltzfus33c330$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.474445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Stoltzfus25c325$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Ruziboev72c305$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.424862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02dc…ef17backed Ruziboev72c256.94$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.941258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Stoltzfus31c249.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.548749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Stoltzfus16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322737%10 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Stoltzfus20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Ruziboev71c175.93$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4531855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Ruziboev73c158.11$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1113465.7%88 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Ruziboev69c155$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.059062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Stoltzfus29c153.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6121554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Stoltzfus29c151$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4414355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfe7…4b7ebacked Ruziboev68c148.76$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f36…4e9cbacked Ruziboev68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Stoltzfus22c139.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1521031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0646backed Stoltzfus30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f31…cb74backed Stoltzfus28c106.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Ruziboev72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2832545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd16…0be8backed Stoltzfus29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296851.5%35 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Ruziboev74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Ruziboev70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3052252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Ruziboev72c87.71$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.563262.5%20 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Stoltzfus30c83.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Ruziboev72c77.58$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.727960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Ruziboev69c76.13$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.628743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2516…f107backed Ruziboev69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Stoltzfus21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Ruziboev72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4411138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…3a83backed Stoltzfus29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33b3…9f56backed Ruziboev66c59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.061361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Ruziboev70c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.510045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfb…25eebacked Ruziboev70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Stoltzfus36c40.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7526451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Stoltzfus35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.96035%21 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Ruziboev72c37.75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.734047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Ruziboev71c36.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.664139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Ruziboev71c35.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2122753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Ruziboev72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Ruziboev72c34.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.625648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18ea…ae46backed Ruziboev69c33.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.423976.9%30 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Ruziboev67c30.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9718560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f0…c63cbacked Ruziboev69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.34052.5%21 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Ruziboev69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.996360.3%38 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd3…c3a1backed Ruziboev71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6579…23ddbacked Ruziboev72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ed…7aeabacked Ruziboev70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62650%13 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x135e…ddaebacked Ruziboev74c18.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x025f…c1cfbacked Ruziboev68c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.65757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe79b…0fe0backed Ruziboev68c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b6d…b2adbacked Ruziboev74c17.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9d…b354backed Ruziboev74c17.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Ruziboev69c15.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.872272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x096f…02babacked Ruziboev74c15.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6730…afe7backed Ruziboev74c14.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb28…b647backed Ruziboev74c14.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.