UFC · resolved market
Park vs. Hernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80b1988365c1c4ed07570530d7c6801c2d9a9630e93464c1b6b257cd9b8c7e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Parkof Park, Hernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1244…2e60backed Park | 57c | 27,611$15,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,872.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…f081backed Hernandez | 43c | 27,611$11,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,872.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Park | 64c | 15,333$9,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,519.87 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Hernandez | 36c | 11,717$4,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,218.12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Hernandez | 36c | 4,059$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.96 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Park | 65c | 2,613$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.23 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Park | 61c | 1,640$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.6 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Hernandez | 35c | 1,600$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Park | 64c | 1,566$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Park | 64c | 1,487$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Hernandez | 37c | 1,418$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hernandez | 36c | 1,022$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.74 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Hernandez | 39c | 1,019$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.85 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Hernandez | 36c | 1,009$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.57 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Park | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Hernandez | 36c | 833$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Hernandez | 36c | 666$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Hernandez | 39c | 650$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Hernandez | 37c | 604.22$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.52 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Park | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Hernandez | 36c | 415$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Hernandez | 36c | 385$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Hernandez | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Hernandez | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Hernandez | 35c | 285.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Park | 62c | 241.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Hernandez | 37c | 226.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Park | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hernandez | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Hernandez | 35c | 159.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Park | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Hernandez | 34c | 109.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Park | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c3…611abacked Park | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Park | 65c | 62.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Hernandez | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…9e8fbacked Park | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Park | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Hernandez | 37c | 28.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…9a00backed Park | 65c | 24.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Park vs. Hernandezthis page
- Burns vs. MoralesMorales won
- Erosa vs. CostaCosta won
- Gordon vs. MoisésGordon won
- Green vs. CamiloGreen won
- Pennington vs. PinheiroPennington won
- Reed vs. GomesGomes won
- Santos vs. LisboaSantos won
- Stoltzfus vs. RuziboevRuziboev won
- Yusuff vs. SantosSantos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.