UFC · resolved market
Pennington vs. Pinheiro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd98cf05f93f67dc68ba8487e73e7e71bd9b2f8c4add06c3f7ce797fda2e34805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penningtonof Pennington, Pinheiro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Pennington | 75c | 21,924$16,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,572.78 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Pinheiro | 26c | 16,053$4,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,167.11 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pinheiro | 25c | 8,072$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.06 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Pinheiro | 27c | 5,064$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.37 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Pinheiro | 29c | 3,451$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.84 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Pennington | 72c | 2,777$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.5 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Pennington | 73c | 2,450$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.49 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pennington | 73c | 1,761$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.49 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Pinheiro | 24c | 1,482$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.08 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pennington | 71c | 1,391$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.05 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pennington | 71c | 952$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.6 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pinheiro | 4c | 899.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Pennington | 73c | 829.78$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.78 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pinheiro | 24c | 695$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Pennington | 75c | 671$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.75 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pinheiro | 25c | 628.7$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pennington | 76c | 612.4$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Pinheiro | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Pennington | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Pennington | 76c | 462.91$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Pinheiro | 31c | 460$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pennington | 71c | 238$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pinheiro | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Pinheiro | 28c | 196.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Pinheiro | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Pinheiro | 30c | 111.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pinheiro | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Pennington | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Pinheiro | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Pennington | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pinheiro | 29c | 96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Pinheiro | 24c | 89.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Pennington | 71c | 69.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…4380backed Pinheiro | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…9e8fbacked Pennington | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Pennington | 73c | 28.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…d424backed Pennington | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…7fe9backed Pennington | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Pennington | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Pennington | 76c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pennington vs. Pinheirothis page
- Burns vs. MoralesMorales won
- Erosa vs. CostaCosta won
- Gordon vs. MoisésGordon won
- Green vs. CamiloGreen won
- Park vs. HernandezPark won
- Reed vs. GomesGomes won
- Santos vs. LisboaSantos won
- Stoltzfus vs. RuziboevRuziboev won
- Yusuff vs. SantosSantos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.