UFC · resolved market
Green vs. Camilo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464d61881466a5f7ec300c623cbfe6499d749ed43051637288c7d83bedad3bd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Greenof Green, Camilo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Green | 35c | 3,043$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.95 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Camilo | 67c | 2,996$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Camilo | 4c | 2,834$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Camilo | 64c | 1,975$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.57 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Green | 34c | 1,972$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.84 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Camilo | 69c | 1,450$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.49 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Camilo | 65c | 1,400$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Green | 36c | 1,114$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.41 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Camilo | 62c | 795$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.35 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Green | 31c | 750.43$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.8 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c3…611abacked Camilo | 65c | 700$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Green | 35c | 674.01$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.11 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Green | 36c | 666$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.24 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Green | 17c | 585.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.02 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Green | 31c | 504.71$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Camilo | 51c | 470$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.6 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Green | 38c | 394.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.41 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Camilo | 62c | 394.21$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.41 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Green | 21c | 353.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.57 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Camilo | 78c | 346.94$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.67 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Green | 33c | 303$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Camilo | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Green | 37c | 272.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.97 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Green | 34c | 271$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.86 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Camilo | 66c | 263.42$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Green | 33c | 250.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.67 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Green | 36c | 243$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Camilo | 65c | 226.88$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Green | 37c | 200.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.39 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Green | 25c | 199.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Green | 34c | 172$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Green | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Camilo | 64c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Camilo | 64c | 82.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Green | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Camilo | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Camilo | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Green | 34c | 54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Green | 31c | 53.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Camilo | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Green | 34c | 40.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Green | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5b…754abacked Camilo | 65c | 24.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Camilo | 65c | 20.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…4d01backed Camilo | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Green vs. Camilothis page
- Burns vs. MoralesMorales won
- Erosa vs. CostaCosta won
- Gordon vs. MoisésGordon won
- Park vs. HernandezPark won
- Pennington vs. PinheiroPennington won
- Reed vs. GomesGomes won
- Santos vs. LisboaSantos won
- Stoltzfus vs. RuziboevRuziboev won
- Yusuff vs. SantosSantos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.