UFC · resolved market
Santos vs. Lisboa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5a85c5e1a783dbd234c83e28bf818d9fbf7a8f1f614ee8e0535bedae32905b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Santosof Santos, Lisboa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1244…2e60backed Lisboa | 42c | 37,645$15,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,810.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c2…2b38backed Santos | 58c | 37,645$21,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,810.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…dc1abacked Lisboa | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Santos | 63c | 2,466$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Santos | 75c | 1,928$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.41 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Santos | 63c | 1,658$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.72 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Santos | 61c | 1,634$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.24 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lisboa | 19c | 1,569$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.61 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Lisboa | 39c | 1,291$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Lisboa | 14c | 1,176$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.58 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Lisboa | 39c | 1,150$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Lisboa | 38c | 749.99$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Lisboa | 38c | 666$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Lisboa | 39c | 508.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.31 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Lisboa | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Lisboa | 40c | 419.95$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.22 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Santos | 61c | 401.42$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.74 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Lisboa | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Lisboa | 38c | 350$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Lisboa | 29c | 348$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Santos | 64c | 329.94$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lisboa | 37c | 286.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c3…611abacked Lisboa | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Lisboa | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Lisboa | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Santos | 62c | 199.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Santos | 59c | 128.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Lisboa | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Lisboa | 39c | 115.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Lisboa | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…9e8fbacked Lisboa | 38c | 83.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…9a00backed Lisboa | 38c | 65.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Santos | 60c | 56.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Lisboa | 37c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Santos | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Santos | 63c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…0a51backed Santos | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos vs. Lisboathis page
- Burns vs. MoralesMorales won
- Erosa vs. CostaCosta won
- Gordon vs. MoisésGordon won
- Green vs. CamiloGreen won
- Park vs. HernandezPark won
- Pennington vs. PinheiroPennington won
- Reed vs. GomesGomes won
- Stoltzfus vs. RuziboevRuziboev won
- Yusuff vs. SantosSantos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.