UFC · resolved market
Gordon vs. Moisés
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a4ef30b0451956b3a1c1d33349d95fc47568a9f4715888f1e2177abcaa0ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gordonof Gordon, Moisés
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbec…8178backed Moisés | 45c | 41,528$18,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,687.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…f78ebacked Gordon | 55c | 41,528$22,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,687.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7d…1033backed Gordon | 54c | 27,311$14,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,563.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6a…e784backed Moisés | 46c | 27,311$12,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,563.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Gordon | 52c | 9,261$4,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,435.24 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Moisés | 47c | 6,725$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.54 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Moisés | 48c | 4,444$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.12 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Moisés | 50c | 3,260$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.05 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Moisés | 48c | 2,178$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.4 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Moisés | 48c | 2,075$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Gordon | 54c | 1,857$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.22 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Moisés | 47c | 1,537$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Gordon | 56c | 1,525$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.37 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Gordon | 51c | 1,463$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.43 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Gordon | 52c | 1,332$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.99 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Gordon | 51c | 1,228$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.17 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Moisés | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Gordon | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Gordon | 50c | 902$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Moisés | 47c | 715.75$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Gordon | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Moisés | 48c | 410$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Gordon | 53c | 374.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.07 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Moisés | 49c | 366.53$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Gordon | 54c | 331.21$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.36 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Gordon | 51c | 300.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Gordon | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Moisés | 40c | 297.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Gordon | 52c | 297.07$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.57 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Moisés | 46c | 284$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Gordon | 53c | 282.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Moisés | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Moisés | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Gordon | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Moisés | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Moisés | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Moisés | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Moisés | 47c | 136$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Moisés | 28c | 121.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c3…611abacked Moisés | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Gordon | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Gordon | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Moisés | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Moisés | 49c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Gordon | 52c | 96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Gordon | 54c | 89.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Gordon | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Moisés | 48c | 70.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Gordon | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bf…3859backed Moisés | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Gordon | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Gordon | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Gordon | 52c | 41.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed Moisés | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Gordon | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…4c9fbacked Moisés | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Moisés | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Gordon | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Moisés | 50c | 21.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…dc1abacked Moisés | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gordon vs. Moisésthis page
- Burns vs. MoralesMorales won
- Erosa vs. CostaCosta won
- Green vs. CamiloGreen won
- Park vs. HernandezPark won
- Pennington vs. PinheiroPennington won
- Reed vs. GomesGomes won
- Santos vs. LisboaSantos won
- Stoltzfus vs. RuziboevRuziboev won
- Yusuff vs. SantosSantos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.