TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Gordon vs. Moisés

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gordonof Gordon, Moisés
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbbec…8178backed Moisés45c41,528$18,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,687.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d56…f78ebacked Gordon55c41,528$22,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,687.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7d…1033backed Gordon54c27,311$14,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,563.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc6a…e784backed Moisés46c27,311$12,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,563.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Gordon52c9,261$4,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,435.2422259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Moisés47c6,725$3,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,154.5435253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Moisés48c4,444$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.123161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Moisés50c3,260$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.055870.7%41 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Moisés48c2,178$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.44833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…8687backed Moisés48c2,075$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+31.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Gordon54c1,857$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.227656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb39…ed7abacked Moisés47c1,537$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Gordon56c1,525$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.3720954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Gordon51c1,463$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.4342042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Gordon52c1,332$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.996943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Gordon51c1,228$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.1733253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Moisés49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Gordon54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9335664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Gordon50c902$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45118145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Moisés47c715.75$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.42948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Gordon54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Moisés48c410$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.839959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Gordon53c374.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.0729848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e1…3600backed Moisés49c366.53$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.61770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Gordon54c331.21$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.363943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Gordon51c300.32$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.0218453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Gordon60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12026451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Moisés40c297.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11914129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Gordon52c297.07$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5714751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Moisés46c284$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6810045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Gordon53c282.97$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13310452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Moisés35c250$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Moisés47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Gordon53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.548749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Moisés49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9824862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd16…0be8backed Moisés48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966851.5%35 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Moisés47c199.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9928743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Moisés47c136$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9216247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Moisés28c121.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0310443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c3…611abacked Moisés47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Gordon52c105$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.49062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Gordon50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5012541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Moisés50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Moisés49c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.552252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Gordon52c96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.514355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Gordon54c89.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0816851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Gordon50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407856.4%44 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Moisés48c70.48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.837960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Gordon53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.932545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bf…3859backed Moisés47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Gordon50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Gordon54c42.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.594139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf391…73c3backed Gordon52c41.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed Moisés49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Gordon54c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.131855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34c8…4c9fbacked Moisés49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe523…09ddbacked Moisés49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Gordon65c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.711540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Moisés50c21.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.685648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eeb…dc1abacked Moisés50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.