TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5505…3a83

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
164
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: MLB, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 58 out of 100; worst UFC at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2025, EDT10552.4%55 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
MLB — the 105 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Twins vs. Astrosbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$67.25
Rockies vs. Bravesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
White Sox vs. Astrosbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Giants vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+203%+$142.12
Nationals vs. Metsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Yankees vs. Royalsbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$57.27
Rangers vs. Twinsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Nationals vs. Metsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Tigers vs. Oriolesbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Dodgers vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Braves vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Reds vs. Guardiansbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$72.86
Cubs vs. Philliesbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$135.88
Blue Jays vs. Twinsbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Rangers vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Royals vs. White Soxbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Orioles vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Mets vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Royals vs. White Soxbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$92.79
Rangers vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Braves vs. Giantsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Dodgers vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$124.44
Mets vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Showing 25 of 105 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2025, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$135.88
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$248.18
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$44.52
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$36.72
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$33.39
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 16 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2025, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$32.63
Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Chelsea vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa vs. Tottenham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Leicester win on 2025-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$26.67
Will Everton win on 2025-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$53.18
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Brighton win on 2025-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Leicester win on 2025-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$20.71
All 16 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Oilers vs. Starsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$67.66
Hurricanes vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Hurricanes vs. Panthersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Panthers vs. Hurricanesbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Capitals vs. Hurricanesbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Capitals vs. Hurricanesbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+150%+$22.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mumbai Indians vs. Punjab Kingsbacked Punjab Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$69.05
Mumbai Indians vs. Delhi Capitalsbacked Delhi Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Delhi Capitals vs. Gujarat Titansbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Burns vs. Moralesbacked Burns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Yusuff vs. Santosbacked Yusuff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Stoltzfus vs. Ruziboevbacked Stoltzfus · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 3 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dogecoin above $0.18 on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+81.1%+$28.39
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 9?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$14.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will Solana reach $190 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$25.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$16.91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.