Premier League · resolved market
Will Chelsea vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5e1fe13a72a6745e4cea5d5a31615d2b0ba8b2cd69ab0f8fd1146964a8ad2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ae4…9188backed Yes | 22c | 37,103$8,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,162 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 78c | 12,913$10,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.96 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…a549backed Yes | 19c | 9,939$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Yes | 20c | 1,266$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 33c | 1,009$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 12c | 975.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 19c | 841$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.79 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 41c | 766.51$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 4c | 766.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 64c | 688.26$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.62 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…fe11backed No | 80c | 471$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 78c | 458.26$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 78c | 452.74$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Yes | 39c | 417.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 276.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 21c | 238$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…a7b9backed Yes | 36c | 213.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed No | 79c | 203.55$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 78c | 180.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 38c | 158.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…8aa5backed Yes | 17c | 153.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed No | 68c | 152.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 78c | 133.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 27c | 127.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 74c | 123$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…4e38backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…e4f0backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc2…76c7backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…b05cbacked Yes | 19c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 33c | 78.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2135…71cdbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Yes | 19c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb7…276abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…485ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 71c | 49.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Yes | 40c | 43.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3c…9ed9backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 59c | 27.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37c8…f919backed Yes | 41c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.