Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45690fa4be72c5b440dfb0f20ed2ddd8146a5f575463e713eeb62589c5bb816c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 18c | 13,919$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 79c | 5,421$4,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.59 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 79c | 5,139$4,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.23 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 19c | 5,035$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 4,100$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 21c | 3,465$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.31 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 18c | 3,006$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…c1cebacked Yes | 9c | 1,741$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 14c | 1,520$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…26a2backed Yes | 15c | 1,493$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 19c | 1,474$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 13c | 1,034$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…f997backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 15c | 846.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 17c | 810$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 13c | 779.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 18c | 557.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 15c | 416.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb0…8de9backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…4eb4backed Yes | 18c | 361.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 15c | 355.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…4241backed Yes | 15c | 337.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 19c | 325.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 200 | 27%54 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…88a6backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…d932backed Yes | 19c | 281.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…d636backed Yes | 17c | 240.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…e927backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…5c37backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce6…f2e7backed Yes | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a40abacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f6…3784backed Yes | 14c | 206$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 277 | 52%144 W · 133 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c59…00aabacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f05…4712backed Yes | 18c | 179.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bc…7230backed Yes | 22c | 177.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…6ed8backed Yes | 15c | 170.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7457…3d0abacked Yes | 15c | 170.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4f…a3e3backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…e110backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3180…2634backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 15c | 136.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4721…f589backed Yes | 7c | 135$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 14c | 112.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc2…76c7backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…fddebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…f0abbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…2b37backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6166…e256backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 20c | 99.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…4942backed Yes | 17c | 92.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…4002backed Yes | 18c | 91.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…31eabacked Yes | 22c | 74.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16?this page
- Will Chelsea vs. Manchester United end in a draw?No won
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.