Us Politics · resolved market
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedfad3bb9a1fafae33a14f6c9e3945d2ace33f0cd31b28af73a62996eceadcb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $477,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $538,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 40c | 31,978$12,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,681.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 68c | 14,758$10,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,741.3 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 74c | 10,214$7,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.89 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No | 67c | 8,848$5,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 31c | 8,534$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,618.73 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 68c | 7,391$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.96 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 45c | 6,640$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,985.52 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 62c | 5,899$3,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.88 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 31c | 5,681$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.54 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 57c | 5,680$3,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…1234backed No | 66c | 5,056$3,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 37c | 5,001$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.86 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 44c | 4,874$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.15 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 34c | 4,801$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.43 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed No | 50c | 4,729$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.57 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 40c | 3,713$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.97 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 54c | 3,707$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.32 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 72c | 3,626$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.43 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 27c | 3,582$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.56 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,499$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.37 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 62c | 3,356$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.93 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed No | 48c | 3,274$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 59c | 3,197$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.09 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 6c | 3,084$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.11 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes | 39c | 3,057$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 57c | 3,054$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.4 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 18c | 3,024$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.36 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea15…c292backed Yes | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…69f9backed No | 63c | 2,963$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 52c | 2,912$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.18 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2154…715cbacked No | 73c | 2,847$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 68c | 2,708$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.12 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked No | 59c | 2,610$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 19c | 2,532$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.07 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 64c | 2,504$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.49 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 2,436$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 22c | 2,351$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.29 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 54c | 2,346$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.61 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 53c | 2,300$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 2,263$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 61c | 2,254$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.04 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes | 45c | 2,207$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked No | 66c | 2,120$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,091$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 39c | 2,066$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.76 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 53c | 2,012$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.39 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afc…e1e4backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,976$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 15c | 1,886$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.88 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 58c | 1,881$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 69c | 1,849$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.86 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aeb…cb83backed No | 53c | 1,787$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 63c | 1,782$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.51 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 70c | 1,750$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 1,651$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.34 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…0f95backed Yes | 5c | 1,637$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 71c | 1,600$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -6.3wins | -0.37per pick | 73cpaid | -53%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…ab88backed Yes | 32c | 1,581$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 69c | 1,547$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 57c | 1,542$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.34 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 37c | 1,529$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.29 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 1,521$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.54 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 1,451$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.98 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed No | 55c | 1,440$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 42c | 1,434$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.25 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…6021backed Yes | 39c | 1,369$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 60c | 1,350$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.15 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 37c | 1,339$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.82 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 29c | 1,335$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.31 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 38c | 1,252$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.53 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed No | 51c | 1,238$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…410fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,235$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 41c | 1,228$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.05 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 43c | 1,200$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.15 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed Yes | 40c | 1,169$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 51c | 1,158$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.48 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 24c | 1,145$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed No | 77c | 1,130$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 28c | 1,125$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 71c | 1,114$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 53c | 1,100$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.99 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 19c | 1,095$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.74 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 63c | 1,059$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,057$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 65c | 1,049$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.19 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 70c | 1,016$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.31 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 78c | 1,011$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.38 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 69c | 1,003$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.96 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.76 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…8872backed Yes | 6c | 999.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 67c | 993.66$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.91 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 30c | 983.33$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 27c | 981.77$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.67 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…6233backed No | 69c | 920.24$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…f94bbacked No | 54c | 918.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.07 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 45c | 913.25$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.24 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…7defbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 55c | 902.11$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 47c | 900$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.