TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$477,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$538,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes40c31,978$12,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,681.231931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No68c14,758$10,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,741.38444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No74c10,214$7,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.892657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No67c8,848$5,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,951.321070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes31c8,534$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.737354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No68c7,391$5,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.967041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes45c6,640$2,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,985.5214135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No62c5,899$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.885451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes31c5,681$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.549549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No57c5,680$3,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,443.921553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2fe…1234backed No66c5,056$3,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes37c5,001$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.864320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes44c4,874$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.154427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes34c4,801$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.4321935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed No50c4,729$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.572429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes40c3,713$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.9710127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes54c3,707$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.3241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No72c3,626$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.432185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes27c3,582$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.568111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes28c3,499$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.377244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No62c3,356$2,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.935735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No48c3,274$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6971346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No59c3,197$1,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.093737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes6c3,084$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.11626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes39c3,057$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes57c3,054$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.43432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed Yes18c3,024$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.362020%4 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea15…c292backed Yes49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47090%0 W · 9 L-4.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd8d3…69f9backed No63c2,963$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No52c2,912$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.185451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked No73c2,847$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No68c2,708$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.1210632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked No59c2,610$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes19c2,532$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.077728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No64c2,504$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.497128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes4c2,436$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9518516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes22c2,351$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.2916544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes54c2,346$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.6137533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No53c2,300$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0856145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes6c2,263$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.595010%5 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-82.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No61c2,254$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.0416725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes45c2,207$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked No66c2,120$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked Yes34c2,091$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.522650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes39c2,066$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.7612630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No53c2,012$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.3918445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0afc…e1e4backed No69c2,000$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,976$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.941,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes15c1,886$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.8818322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No58c1,881$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.56580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No69c1,849$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.863542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aeb…cb83backed No53c1,787$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.14742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0a…6fc4backed No63c1,782$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.513655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No70c1,750$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.55158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c1,651$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.3499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e9c…0f95backed Yes5c1,637$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No71c1,600$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4641735.3%6 W · 11 L-6.3wins-0.37per pick73cpaid-53%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdc76…ab88backed Yes32c1,581$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd063…5ccdbacked No69c1,547$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.95580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No57c1,542$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.3418033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes37c1,529$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.2937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes36c1,521$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.5444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes32c1,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c1,451$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.981,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e25…0667backed No55c1,440$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.84580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes42c1,434$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.255326.4%14 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfef…6021backed Yes39c1,369$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No60c1,350$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.154163.4%26 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+57.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes37c1,339$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.826041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes29c1,335$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.318134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes38c1,252$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.535431.5%17 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed No51c1,238$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.051942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+55.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2db4…410fbacked Yes33c1,235$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.32650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No41c1,228$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.052416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-58.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No43c1,200$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.1510324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7e…d472backed Yes40c1,169$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.521172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes51c1,158$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.4837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes24c1,145$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.342045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed No77c1,130$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-74.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes28c1,125$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.253250%16 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No71c1,114$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.081050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes53c1,100$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.998547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes19c1,095$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.747638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No63c1,059$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.114438.6%17 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes32c1,057$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-91.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No65c1,049$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.195265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No70c1,016$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.317254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No78c1,011$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.3817544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed No69c1,003$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.964216.7%7 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.762524%6 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ba…8872backed Yes6c999.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No67c993.66$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.916546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes30c983.33$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2943053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes27c981.77$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6716854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1d46…6233backed No69c920.24$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.88580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick35cpaid+191.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0249…f94bbacked No54c918.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.071464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes45c913.25$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.2419435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf81…7defbacked Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc0…1b66backed Yes55c902.11$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes47c900$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4251323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.