TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$171,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No78c99,839$77,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,316.766953.6%37 W · 32 L+7.7wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Yes23c68,755$15,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,813.6513829%40 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes21c23,810$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked No78c6,083$4,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.9113857.2%79 W · 59 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes20c4,894$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.81,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No67c4,339$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.2738645.3%175 W · 211 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes23c3,550$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.568026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked No78c3,513$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.8111454.4%62 W · 52 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabf4…c381backed Yes22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd69a…81eabacked Yes16c2,959$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.773935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes23c2,609$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006440.6%26 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f84…560fbacked Yes22c2,505$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes19c1,934$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.211723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Yes22c1,818$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes22c1,717$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.445442.6%23 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No78c1,608$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.3583459.4%495 W · 339 L+25.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes34c1,570$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.869772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes33c1,476$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab46…eb4ebacked No78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.05666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Yes20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509111%10 W · 81 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No77c1,238$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.5679639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…7892backed No78c1,184$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4196…f997backed Yes12c1,176$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471520%3 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes22c1,093$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes21c1,010$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x530e…a4b2backed Yes13c793.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004226.2%11 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked No79c633.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.039255.4%51 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82db…0086backed Yes22c630.09$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes19c618.38$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf87…69b2backed Yes21c617.34$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.643020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed No78c587.18$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.182965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014945%67 W · 82 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a24…ea91backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x257c…49aabacked Yes20c489.05$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.71030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005330.2%16 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…a286backed Yes22c450.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008439.3%33 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fb…31d6backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40a3…6ed8backed Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6418…f8a6backed Yes23c428.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Yes20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8042048.6%204 W · 216 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed No79c353$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1321445.8%98 W · 116 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes39c340.98$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4329238.4%112 W · 180 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes23c331.43$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.231225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3621…4f82backed Yes23c315.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.613138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x563a…85dfbacked No71c280$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x965e…0062backed Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014156.7%80 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No78c258.86$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0779650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab30…d8cebacked Yes16c253.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-84%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c88…d960backed Yes7c245.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.255832.8%19 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a37…2c5fbacked Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7227752%144 W · 133 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes19c182.07$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7714732%47 W · 100 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd9…0ac5backed Yes22c181.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes20c177$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.417745.8%81 W · 96 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab3e…6939backed Yes21c164.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked No77c162$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.266177%47 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf634…3c9ebacked Yes10c155.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.562045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x701c…9bc5backed No77c155$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc1…4485backed Yes23c155$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+90.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed No77c152.67$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4318752.9%99 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes21c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.54839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x187f…c378backed No68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.066152.5%32 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x616b…72f7backed Yes22c146.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.322025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No79c139.48$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5852060.4%314 W · 206 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No77c130$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.981559%481 W · 334 L+32.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4774…da0cbacked Yes23c126.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25eb…8ce7backed Yes18c125.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.517447.7%83 W · 91 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf07…5129backed Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305022%11 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc89e…6a30backed Yes17c120.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed Yes23c120.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.663345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9351…db66backed Yes26c116.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes23c116.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7719632.7%64 W · 132 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No77c116$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.359958.9%353 W · 246 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes21c115$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.330666%202 W · 104 L+57.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+76.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2453…28e2backed Yes22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525637.9%97 W · 159 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9674…b8cbbacked Yes22c109.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-76.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9977…085fbacked Yes23c106.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.591020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked No78c105.64$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.244566.7%30 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b8…9cafbacked Yes22c104.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x996f…3748backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6926…a128backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked Yes19c99.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.874318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc08…6bd3backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6194…6922backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdd…1969backed Yes23c91.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x528a…db44backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa124…4891backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd32a…e927backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff6b…8a9ebacked Yes22c88.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.476527.7%18 W · 47 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x81f8…ead6backed Yes18c87.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.69248.3%2 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-83.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f51…af3bbacked Yes23c78.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…3a83backed Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…8affbacked Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6b…b2d5backed Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86e…db71backed Yes21c71.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59c6…ae66backed Yes22c69.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86b…81e6backed No77c64.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.884654.3%25 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1472…e0cfbacked Yes24c58.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.