TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6a24…7892

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst NHL at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2025, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.4
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.64
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+203%+$643.63
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$753Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$753
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$806.67
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$660.88
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$851.85
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$524.95
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$365.05
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$389
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$145.79
Bucks vs. Pacersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$293.29
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$108.88
Pacers vs. Bucksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$64.13
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$123.43
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+150%+$135.08
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.03
All 18 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2025, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cardinals vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.01
Marlins vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.77
Royals vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$62.86
Rangers vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$24.13
Marlins vs. White Soxbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$186.74
Mariners vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,031.67
Dodgers vs. Marlinsbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$568.8
Dodgers vs. Marlinsbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$913Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+47.6%+$434.88
Rays vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$591Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$591
Athletics vs. Marlinsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+104.8%+$676.61
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$36.09
Will Inter win on 2025-05-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$187.93
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$61.65
All 3 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.75
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$925Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$925
Devils vs. Hurricanesbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
All 3 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.