MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3eace591a7e3eb4e78336ca529eef60b864799fa8bca64c28d0aaf58a66bb6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Yankees | 63c | 28,322$17,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,900 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 37c | 12,334$4,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,715.96 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 38c | 4,313$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,672.26 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Yankees | 11c | 3,568$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.49 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yankees | 53c | 2,416$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.63 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yankees | 16c | 2,208$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.33 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Rays | 40c | 1,395$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.42 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 38c | 1,373$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.38 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Rays | 38c | 1,270$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.48 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rays | 38c | 1,104$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.48 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Rays | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…7892backed Yankees | 62c | 953.23$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 39c | 820.93$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd8…4fabbacked Yankees | 61c | 818.3$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rays | 36c | 789.25$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.58 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Rays | 38c | 713.96$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.66 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yankees | 62c | 673.59$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.63 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yankees | 62c | 593.46$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.41 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yankees | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yankees | 23c | 424.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Rays | 40c | 344.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Rays | 40c | 342.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.79 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yankees | 62c | 323.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rays | 38c | 263.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rays | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rays | 37c | 239.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yankees | 61c | 148.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yankees | 63c | 116.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Rays | 41c | 115.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Yankees | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Rays | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Yankees | 61c | 90.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rays | 38c | 79.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Rays | 39c | 53.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Rays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rays | 39c | 51.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Yankees | 61c | 51.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Yankees | 61c | 49.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rays | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yankees | 35c | 33.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Rays | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Rays | 40c | 25.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yankees | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Yankees | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.