MLB · resolved market
Dodgers vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12248fb41736ff906789598fac16b2302dadc082c875daae977e430cd43faeb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marlinsof Dodgers, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf980…6528backed Marlins | 30c | 32,992$9,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,139.23 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Dodgers | 55c | 23,274$12,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,795.22 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Dodgers | 68c | 14,682$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Dodgers | 57c | 12,178$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,899.99 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins | 32c | 5,823$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,957.48 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Dodgers | 63c | 5,712$3,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,603.58 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 32c | 5,199$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,513.12 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 63c | 3,520$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.9 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Dodgers | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Dodgers | 71c | 2,852$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.19 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Dodgers | 71c | 2,809$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.48 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Marlins | 30c | 2,238$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.66 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Marlins | 29c | 2,009$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.36 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 41c | 1,845$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.85 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Marlins | 32c | 1,834$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.48 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Dodgers | 65c | 1,760$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.08 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Dodgers | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Dodgers | 34c | 1,435$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.68 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Dodgers | 68c | 1,294$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.92 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 43c | 1,233$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.66 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Marlins | 63c | 1,100$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 36c | 1,022$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Dodgers | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dodgers | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…7892backed Dodgers | 69c | 824.35$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Marlins | 27c | 687.85$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.13 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Dodgers | 51c | 582.31$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Dodgers | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Dodgers | 73c | 454.24$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.65 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins | 29c | 448$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.23 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Marlins | 32c | 436$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.48 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Dodgers | 47c | 427.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Dodgers | 73c | 341.19$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Dodgers | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marlins | 42c | 270.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.64 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Dodgers | 70c | 269.92$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.94 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dodgers | 70c | 179.94$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Dodgers | 12c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Dodgers | 66c | 149.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Dodgers | 70c | 128$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Marlins | 28c | 118.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Dodgers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Marlins | 30c | 103.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Dodgers | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b5…42f9backed Marlins | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5d…47d0backed Dodgers | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Dodgers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Marlins | 30c | 98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Dodgers | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Dodgers | 68c | 68.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Dodgers | 73c | 55.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Dodgers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…aefabacked Dodgers | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Dodgers | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Dodgers | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Dodgers | 69c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Marlins | 32c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Dodgers | 68c | 42.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Dodgers | 71c | 42.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Dodgers | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Dodgers | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Dodgers | 69c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Dodgers | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Dodgers | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Dodgers | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Dodgers | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…39a1backed Marlins | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.