TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Cardinals vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cardinalsof Cardinals, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,161 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe86e…dab1backed Orioles52c37,093$19,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,288.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1864…f296backed Cardinals48c37,093$17,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,288.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles71c30,597$21,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,850.5486751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Orioles53c20,685$10,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,963.1627948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Cardinals47c14,942$7,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,919.2650852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf90d…0b4dbacked Cardinals21c11,871$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,3722231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Orioles19c11,319$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.0415745.2%71 W · 86 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee0…98cfbacked Orioles58c9,170$5,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,335.031741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-40.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x08ad…208ebacked Cardinals48c9,028$4,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,694.6721740.1%87 W · 130 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…41a9backed Orioles54c8,616$4,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,610.494858.3%28 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles29c8,396$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.692,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Cardinals50c8,087$4,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,051.9221356.3%120 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cardinals38c7,600$2,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,708.281,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles51c7,428$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,792.181,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals50c7,309$3,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,652.449,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…ec2fbacked Orioles50c6,300$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.8714048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Cardinals49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.4521941.1%90 W · 129 L-19.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Orioles52c5,967$3,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,103.0620850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Cardinals40c4,471$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.9126847.4%127 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Cardinals49c3,746$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.739041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles51c3,235$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.691,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles51c3,219$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.592,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Orioles51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27541643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecb…070fbacked Cardinals49c2,088$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.762462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3339…48a5backed Orioles50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8e2…322bbacked Orioles53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0602133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3890…39e3backed Cardinals47c1,993$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.292642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ff…86f3backed Orioles79c1,860$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.351145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cardinals48c1,773$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.791,15349.2%567 W · 586 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Cardinals49c1,729$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.711058.2%64 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Orioles51c1,281$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.1514966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Cardinals23c1,216$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93630928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Orioles67c1,210$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.7597950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Cardinals50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Orioles54c1,152$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.4740547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Orioles52c1,112$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.425550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cardinals48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6788549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Cardinals51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles51c999.97$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.0333349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Cardinals50c850.62$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.3125835.3%91 W · 167 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Cardinals54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36817927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles51c734.03$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.365,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Orioles23c665.67$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2412335%43 W · 80 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Cardinals17c594.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.1223938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Orioles52c588.46$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30619852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c7…a91ebacked Cardinals49c510.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.23647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Orioles5c504.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.074754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Cardinals50c502.5$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.524844%109 W · 139 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cardinals47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26593240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Cardinals51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.3451953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed Cardinals63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851989.5%17 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick74cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0512…6f17backed Cardinals20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Orioles51c431$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8127751.3%142 W · 135 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Cardinals48c420$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.420450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Cardinals49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.163751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Orioles49c401.7$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8373352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Cardinals50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20092754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b21…10c5backed Cardinals50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cardinals45c387.8$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.8963942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Cardinals50c380.94$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.4714047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Cardinals27c375.54$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.3415256.6%86 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Cardinals14c357.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.1420523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Cardinals24c354.4$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.452542.5%223 W · 302 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9938…c7e8backed Orioles67c348.5$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9810858.3%63 W · 45 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Cardinals36c333.33$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3313852.2%72 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Cardinals31c331.73$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.471442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Cardinals39c320.65$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.917744.1%78 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals55c308.84$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9868656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c0…ae94backed Orioles77c308.14$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.730%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Cardinals49c306.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.2230842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Cardinals48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561,01251.2%518 W · 494 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles37c280.37$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.561,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Cardinals69c267.41$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde0…c21cbacked Cardinals76c262.22$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.936238.7%24 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6475…d22fbacked Cardinals51c252.94$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.941225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Cardinals48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13020150.2%101 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles52c232.81$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0660249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Orioles52c230.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12028453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Cardinals47c222.49$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.711,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa55b…d5ccbacked Cardinals49c212.77$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.682744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals49c204.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.982,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Cardinals41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x385a…08d1backed Cardinals13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1744626.1%12 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed Cardinals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10413848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Cardinals48c193.61$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10185047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Orioles53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021853.2%116 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Orioles67c183.09$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.311,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Orioles7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Cardinals49c147.53$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2434264.3%220 W · 122 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x069c…96e4backed Cardinals15c133.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.333925.6%10 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Cardinals23c129.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1720645.1%93 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…d651backed Orioles52c125$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6519849%97 W · 101 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x956b…4065backed Cardinals49c110.27$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Orioles48c106.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0570841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Cardinals46c104.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5651151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Cardinals48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.175358.5%31 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1509…a339backed Cardinals49c102.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.214100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+85.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Orioles28c102.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.179740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4a…3747backed Cardinals48c101.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.89450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.