TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Timberwolves

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Twolvesof Lakers, Twolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,375,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,419,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,375,625 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 588 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Lakers41c214,658$87,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,326.248333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Twolves60c124,502$74,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,800.916344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Lakers49c118,803$57,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,823.0447848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3196…146fbacked Twolves47c88,667$41,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,038.11936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Twolves59c79,618$47,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,415.3914052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Twolves60c60,808$36,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,323.3528241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…f347backed Lakers33c60,000$19,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,599.991618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Twolves64c52,162$33,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,639.5422457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Twolves64c48,763$31,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,500.7512938%49 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Twolves73c48,686$35,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,295.4810357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Twolves59c39,335$23,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,127.3496447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Lakers39c36,866$14,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,538.455433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lakers41c36,049$14,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,648.9414434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Lakers31c31,973$10,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,071.0670147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Lakers41c31,600$12,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,960.6128341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Twolves58c31,084$18,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,055.141,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Lakers40c30,491$12,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,276.5346426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Twolves61c29,118$17,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,333.623,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Twolves64c27,647$17,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,880.181,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Lakers40c25,306$10,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,122.5422458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Twolves64c25,235$16,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,075.641,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Lakers41c24,390$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.773644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Twolves64c19,370$12,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,966.0828347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Lakers47c18,511$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,700.3938143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Lakers33c18,207$5,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,985.2312232%39 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ed…16f3backed Twolves60c17,269$10,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,907.552475%18 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Lakers35c16,927$5,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,973.3666744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Lakers23c15,971$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.913221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa774…dcafbacked Twolves60c15,602$9,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,270.17683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bd…730dbacked Twolves60c15,057$9,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,992.382751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…64eebacked Twolves62c14,465$8,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,496.6119350.3%97 W · 96 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Twolves61c13,226$8,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.5170640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Lakers37c13,187$4,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,815.0948046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Lakers40c13,120$5,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,248.0924831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Lakers40c13,043$5,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,162.334484.1%37 W · 7 L+9.7wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Lakers41c12,236$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,016.738536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Twolves47c10,738$5,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,691.2912657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Twolves59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,10066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Twolves48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Twolves59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.9936057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Twolves68c9,238$6,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989.7613248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Twolves72c9,036$6,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,553.2936748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Lakers55c8,112$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Lakers0c8,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Twolves60c7,963$4,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,185.213560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Lakers19c7,767$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.5813731.4%43 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Lakers41c7,460$3,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,058.5823342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked Lakers40c7,450$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.461127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Lakers40c6,557$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,622.1516641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfaf…4513backed Twolves60c5,938$3,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,375.331353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Lakers39c5,871$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.615230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xabe9…8826backed Lakers39c5,231$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.84143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Twolves67c5,168$3,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.4827348.7%133 W · 140 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Lakers41c5,050$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Twolves70c5,025$3,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.888259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Twolves59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0501,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Lakers40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.964854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d5d…8e9ebacked Lakers41c4,581$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cad…b991backed Lakers37c4,446$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.69862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Twolves66c4,208$2,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.437627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Lakers38c4,173$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60011229.5%33 W · 79 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Lakers34c4,034$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.2230443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3375…a8d8backed Lakers35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Lakers41c4,000$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.08119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-84.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Twolves61c3,738$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.6388053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed Twolves56c3,565$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.691050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dc7…3a04backed Lakers18c3,505$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.788229.3%24 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Twolves59c3,500$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,43522137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Twolves66c3,364$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.375,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f72…4d8ebacked Lakers27c3,307$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.883616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…0e7cbacked Lakers34c3,235$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Lakers43c3,179$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.736843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0537…13b6backed Twolves59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.992462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+68.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4d75…74a5backed Lakers34c2,944$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Twolves67c2,823$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.61,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Lakers36c2,739$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97326431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Twolves68c2,669$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.1820756%116 W · 91 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4727…aa86backed Twolves60c2,633$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+62.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Lakers40c2,501$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.56339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc43e…0141backed Lakers41c2,432$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997120%0 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Lakers33c2,432$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.56454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Lakers22c2,414$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.0253134.7%184 W · 347 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Twolves57c2,395$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.1373647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…c0e6backed Lakers25c2,180$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Lakers45c2,119$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.4466732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Twolves54c2,034$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.545728.1%16 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Twolves58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.991,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Lakers1c1,986$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.587502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Lakers39c1,905$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.9519448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Lakers36c1,835$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.0334852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Lakers42c1,811$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.3127840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Twolves58c1,725$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.566153.3%352 W · 309 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2a…ca37backed Twolves59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.928851.1%45 W · 43 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf730…3de2backed Twolves61c1,641$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.398962.9%56 W · 33 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Lakers1c1,605$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.124423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e0…5e9abacked Lakers42c1,550$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Lakers38c1,548$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.323237.1%86 W · 146 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Twolves60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60029957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Twolves60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6006747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Lakers6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9047535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.