MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87befd8f3b3a178b7b07087d102d6ab330d8a3e15d9d9b300280ab55c8fb8a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 51c | 8,253$4,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,218.74 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 46c | 6,472$2,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,953.51 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Athletics | 54c | 5,584$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 40c | 3,613$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Athletics | 55c | 2,687$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.37 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Athletics | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Athletics | 49c | 1,463$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.76 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 47c | 1,440$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.92 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…7892backed Athletics | 49c | 1,322$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 46c | 1,210$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.27 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Athletics | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Athletics | 48c | 927.18$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.24 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Athletics | 49c | 804$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.96 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Athletics | 50c | 784.39$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.41 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 48c | 703.54$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.7 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Marlins | 52c | 687.38$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.97 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Athletics | 55c | 485.29$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.38 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Athletics | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Athletics | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Marlins | 45c | 308$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Marlins | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Athletics | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Marlins | 50c | 183.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Marlins | 51c | 179.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Athletics | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Athletics | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Marlins | 54c | 166.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Athletics | 74c | 159.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Athletics | 46c | 114.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Athletics | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Marlins | 45c | 100.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Athletics | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Marlins | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Marlins | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Athletics | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Marlins | 52c | 63.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Athletics | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics | 57c | 52.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Athletics | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…8f1bbacked Athletics | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…993dbacked Athletics | 46c | 43.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Athletics | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Marlins | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Marlins | 48c | 41.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Marlins | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Athletics | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Athletics | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Marlins | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Athletics | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Athletics | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Athletics | 49c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Athletics | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.