MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8e454276f6f76c664e8235e2e7d830fedf7150a9ef31004ba382a5dc8d8082d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- White Soxof Marlins, White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed White Sox | 43c | 3,679$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.01 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Marlins | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Marlins | 57c | 978$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.46 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Marlins | 6c | 776.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 57c | 645.91$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.17 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Marlins | 52c | 643.42$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.62 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed White Sox | 45c | 618.68$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.86 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Marlins | 57c | 470.77$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.34 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Marlins | 6c | 378.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed White Sox | 80c | 377.79$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…7892backed Marlins | 59c | 316.51$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked White Sox | 65c | 305$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed White Sox | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked White Sox | 41c | 292$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.28 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 44c | 280.62$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 34c | 239.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed White Sox | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Marlins | 65c | 154.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Marlins | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked White Sox | 42c | 149$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1999…fedbbacked White Sox | 43c | 124.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Marlins | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…38b7backed White Sox | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked White Sox | 46c | 95.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…dbc7backed White Sox | 42c | 95.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed White Sox | 41c | 95.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marlins | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked White Sox | 62c | 78.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed White Sox | 43c | 50.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Marlins | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Marlins | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed White Sox | 67c | 43.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Marlins | 59c | 42.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Marlins | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked White Sox | 41c | 39.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…72a0backed Marlins | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Marlins | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Marlins | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Marlins | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.