TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Timberwolves, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,405,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,294,219

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,405,064 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 997 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Timberwolves11c248,249$27,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,309.1446426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Timberwolves24c172,415$40,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,58828341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder75c150,000$113,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,00014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Timberwolves25c112,105$28,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,026.313764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Timberwolves9c99,000$9,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,129.9614434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe818…4bb3backed Timberwolves25c81,544$20,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,385.981040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Thunder76c74,265$56,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,543.142138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Timberwolves4c61,008$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.051978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Thunder75c61,000$45,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,2502450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Timberwolves5c60,498$2,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,912.925942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Timberwolves24c51,373$12,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,329.542147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Thunder75c50,000$37,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,5008840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Thunder77c49,640$38,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,417.122457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder76c48,965$37,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,641.0196447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Timberwolves14c47,068$6,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,777.841,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Timberwolves0c42,201$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.34224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-85.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder76c39,868$30,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,503.2813560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Timberwolves26c38,968$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder75c34,647$26,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,552.5218146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Timberwolves24c32,675$7,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,935.2536843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder76c32,129$24,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,710.8528241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder75c22,000$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Timberwolves5c22,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1409747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…41a9backed Timberwolves24c20,833$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Thunder75c20,275$15,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,068.83666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Timberwolves4c20,019$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.4693041.9%390 W · 540 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder75c20,000$15,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,92029957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3725…0d14backed Timberwolves1c18,584$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb225…c52bbacked Timberwolves11c17,422$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8651040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Timberwolves2c16,924$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.367929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Timberwolves3c16,570$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.1825536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder75c16,240$12,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,06047751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Timberwolves11c16,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76027731.4%87 W · 190 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2339…e984backed Timberwolves10c15,704$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Timberwolves1c14,100$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4933743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee0…98cfbacked Timberwolves4c13,765$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67a5…9996backed Timberwolves5c13,741$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.045121.6%11 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Timberwolves7c13,282$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.583636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Timberwolves1c13,100$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.58783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01d…e9f3backed Timberwolves10c12,637$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff1…efdbbacked Thunder75c11,800$8,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9501471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Timberwolves2c11,512$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721f…748bbacked Timberwolves1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Timberwolves20c11,000$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d5…5684backed Timberwolves7c11,000$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7854434.1%15 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Timberwolves24c10,014$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.311,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4003852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Thunder77c9,611$7,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.3614161%86 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Timberwolves24c9,103$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.9337734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Thunder76c8,800$6,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1121258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Timberwolves26c8,522$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed Timberwolves25c8,182$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.452544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Timberwolves14c8,141$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Timberwolves25c7,552$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88823135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Thunder75c7,200$5,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.7788053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Timberwolves4c7,050$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8b…4f21backed Timberwolves1c7,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6312841.4%53 W · 75 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Timberwolves25c6,920$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,73013636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…c024backed Timberwolves24c5,900$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Thunder76c5,579$4,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.6766153.3%352 W · 309 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Timberwolves24c5,555$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.220248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Timberwolves0c5,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.754573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Timberwolves23c5,470$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.0159653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcca…436bbacked Timberwolves24c5,265$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.66966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ecb…070fbacked Thunder76c5,263$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+50.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder76c5,210$3,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.112,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd313…a320backed Thunder77c5,189$3,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…387abacked Timberwolves0c5,143$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Timberwolves17c5,106$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.762,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Thunder75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2507051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Timberwolves1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35190%0 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbba7…dde5backed Timberwolves25c4,940$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2352254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab07…1e7bbacked Thunder76c4,939$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.341866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Timberwolves16c4,843$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.9519419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Timberwolves1c4,759$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.838536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Thunder76c4,605$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.267445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb8…43f6backed Timberwolves25c4,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1257236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf032…4456backed Thunder76c4,500$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Timberwolves15c4,435$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.057829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Timberwolves3c4,209$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.367911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Thunder75c4,191$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.671136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c70…232abacked Timberwolves25c4,071$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.875337.7%20 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Timberwolves23c4,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91070%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Timberwolves16c3,832$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.135950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x069c…96e4backed Timberwolves9c3,749$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3255332.1%17 W · 36 L+7.8wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+39.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Timberwolves6c3,610$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.822826.3%60 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd358…6058backed Timberwolves4c3,569$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603452.9%18 W · 16 L+6.1wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+66.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Timberwolves1c3,300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.78016.3%13 W · 67 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e77…1bc1backed Timberwolves9c3,230$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder74c3,119$2,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81470640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5e…6a2cbacked Timberwolves24c3,055$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.271070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+51.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Timberwolves3c3,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781234.9%6 W · 117 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Thunder76c3,000$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.221,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Timberwolves1c2,888$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.331145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8171…8e32backed Timberwolves2c2,802$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443818.4%7 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Timberwolves9c2,789$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25066744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…94f3backed Thunder75c2,722$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.461070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eae…547dbacked Timberwolves25c2,718$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf020…a576backed Timberwolves4c2,663$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9915724.2%38 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Timberwolves11c2,650$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4824423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.