TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfa67…0ef4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
126
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT8016.3%13 W · 67 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 80 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hornets vs. Thunderbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.42
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.85
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.7
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Mavericks vs. Grizzliesbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Hawks vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Grizzlies vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.91
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Bulls vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Bulls vs. Sunsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Jazz vs. Timberwolvesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Pacers vs. Bucksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.5
Hornets vs. Hawksbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.2
76ers vs. Raptorsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Pistons vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Suns vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Wizards vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Suns vs. Nuggetsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$11.1
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$21.8
Showing 25 of 80 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2025, EST2634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshallbacked Santos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+316.7%+$76
Kattar vs. Zalalbacked Kattar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$95
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Adesanya vs. Imavovbacked Imavov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+239%+$705
Makhachev vs. Moicanobacked Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+284.6%+$739.98
Covington vs. Buckleybacked Covington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$145
Swanson vs. Quarantillobacked Swanson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+177.8%+$192
Kape vs. Silvabacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$160.8
Petrino vs. Jacobybacked Jacoby · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+233.3%+$210
Yanez vs. Marcosbacked Yanez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$190
Stirling vs. Tokkosbacked Tokkos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$48
Alvarez vs. Klosebacked Klose · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$51
Maverick vs. Horthbacked Horth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$131.01
Grant vs.Taverasbacked Grant · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+88.7%+$141
Knutsson vs. Rodriguezbacked Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+244.8%+$213
Pantoja vs. Asakurabacked Asakura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$339.86
Rakhmonov vs. Garrybacked Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$809.99
Gane vs. Volkovbacked Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$362.13
Mitchell vs. Graciebacked Gracie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$86.23
Landwehr vs. Choibacked Choi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+132.6%+$27.22
Yan vs. Figueiredobacked Figueiredo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$100.8
Jones vs. Miocicbacked Miocic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$365.12
Nickal vs. Craigbacked Craig · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$127
Araujo vs. Silvabacked Araujo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+270.4%+$72.99
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+298.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+528.5%+$259.92
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+68.9%+$204
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+212.5%+$666.76
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$100.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Bruins vs. Rangersbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$1,750
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gladiator II gross between $67-75m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$33.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$943Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$942.66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.