TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Pantoja vs. Asakura

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pantojaof Pantoja, Asakura
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$283,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5978…5e50backed Pantoja69c74,847$51,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,393.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43e3…c7f2backed Asakura31c65,096$20,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,084.2650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Asakura30c48,000$14,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,469.953943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7109…6b1fbacked Asakura31c31,756$9,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a627backed Pantoja69c30,132$20,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,269.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Asakura33c15,515$5,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,114.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Pantoja70c15,502$10,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,650.711346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Pantoja67c10,657$7,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,523.294259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7113…a1fcbacked Pantoja69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb912…302bbacked Pantoja70c9,080$6,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3291…e502backed Pantoja69c7,029$4,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3980…724cbacked Asakura30c6,667$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Pantoja68c5,760$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.115775.4%43 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Asakura32c5,172$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.4542042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pantoja69c5,047$3,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.2533253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af1…ef00backed Pantoja69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x763b…f5cebacked Asakura31c4,839$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Pantoja70c4,641$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.284156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Asakura31c4,000$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Asakura30c3,996$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.744946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Pantoja70c3,808$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.4917158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Pantoja70c3,697$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.165265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Pantoja69c3,557$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.716462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Asakura30c3,439$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.913033.3%10 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc0…334bbacked Pantoja68c3,235$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53d…6b23backed Pantoja72c3,082$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Pantoja66c2,945$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.065653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b17…f5a5backed Asakura34c2,925$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Asakura29c2,196$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.4710149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7d…2040backed Asakura31c2,135$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Pantoja69c1,949$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.2418560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe499…fb72backed Asakura31c1,601$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed Pantoja65c1,576$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.371050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f3…2f94backed Pantoja71c1,549$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Pantoja67c1,500$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Asakura33c1,481$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.5410043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Pantoja66c1,475$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.272360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Pantoja68c1,446$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.661181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick65cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Asakura24c1,429$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.862634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cf…8647backed Asakura34c1,351$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Asakura32c1,332$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c4…2362backed Asakura31c1,232$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa714…d689backed Asakura32c1,197$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Asakura32c1,165$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.916248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Asakura26c1,073$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4721031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe49…5272backed Pantoja70c1,046$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a8…7795backed Pantoja71c1,035$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0566…f2c8backed Pantoja61c1,031$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.933100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ae…3327backed Pantoja70c1,010$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Asakura29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2906349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Pantoja71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9735539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Pantoja69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3102142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f1…b624backed Pantoja68c971.3$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16e4…d1d3backed Pantoja66c946.69$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Asakura31c888$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.2825251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3587…23adbacked Asakura35c854.84$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e09…1c3fbacked Pantoja69c778.37$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.29955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Pantoja69c729.99$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.339959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf13…7889backed Pantoja69c699.99$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8d…7a33backed Asakura30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Asakura32c664.4$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.614934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a29…325fbacked Asakura31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Asakura32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb362…7d19backed Asakura32c616.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe606…73a9backed Pantoja70c600$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Pantoja71c598.63$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.62751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Pantoja72c583.72$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8853956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Pantoja66c575.02$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.815867.2%39 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacb…774abacked Asakura32c553.13$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ed…e635backed Asakura34c516.43$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab79…695fbacked Asakura32c502.23$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Pantoja67c500.94$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked Asakura32c450$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Pantoja68c441.18$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.567451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…db49backed Pantoja69c432.12$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.124100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2461…906fbacked Pantoja70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Asakura30c399.98$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9919531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc174…6941backed Asakura32c399.36$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa952…88d2backed Pantoja71c389.58$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.611154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Asakura33c356.12$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5810529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4870…cdd1backed Asakura34c355.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a11…2f3abacked Asakura34c323.1$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-44.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ec5…6765backed Pantoja70c323$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Asakura32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed Pantoja70c301$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x603e…c256backed Pantoja70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Asakura19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a37…c66fbacked Pantoja67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f4…a635backed Pantoja65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Asakura31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9312147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe327…ec05backed Pantoja70c299.99$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5b…1205backed Pantoja66c299.98$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Pantoja67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.511675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x211a…9613backed Asakura30c293.33$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898939.3%35 W · 54 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Asakura34c290.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3285…75e6backed Asakura33c289.73$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8d…261abacked Pantoja70c286.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.621741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac8…7a9ebacked Pantoja70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pantoja68c279.99$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2813953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…269bbacked Pantoja72c278.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.