UFC · resolved market
Mitchell vs. Gracie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f5c03eebda10a3132fae962624215ec7e96fd9e5058b29408cbd01a71d2737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mitchellof Mitchell, Gracie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3980…724cbacked Gracie | 14c | 7,143$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e4…d1d3backed Gracie | 1c | 5,760$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Gracie | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Gracie | 14c | 4,013$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.78 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Gracie | 12c | 2,962$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.55 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Gracie | 14c | 2,508$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Gracie | 15c | 2,081$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…2f94backed Gracie | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ed…e635backed Gracie | 18c | 1,692$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6964backed Gracie | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f96…56c1backed Gracie | 13c | 1,384$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Gracie | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Gracie | 13c | 990.61$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Gracie | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Gracie | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…c0e6backed Gracie | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Gracie | 18c | 479.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Gracie | 18c | 429.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…51f9backed Gracie | 11c | 350.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Gracie | 13c | 342.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…eb68backed Gracie | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Gracie | 14c | 326.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Gracie | 19c | 319.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Gracie | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Mitchell | 80c | 281.73$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Gracie | 15c | 272.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Gracie | 20c | 265.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Gracie | 41c | 241.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Gracie | 13c | 210$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Mitchell | 58c | 208.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Gracie | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…197abacked Gracie | 22c | 182.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…8f7bbacked Gracie | 14c | 178.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…f564backed Gracie | 13c | 169.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3203…0604backed Gracie | 9c | 160.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…7301backed Gracie | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720c…b8b7backed Gracie | 18c | 137.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…6f36backed Gracie | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Gracie | 14c | 128.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…f7fcbacked Gracie | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…b898backed Gracie | 15c | 102.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…59a1backed Gracie | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Mitchell | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…20ebbacked Gracie | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Gracie | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39ae…cc72backed Gracie | 13c | 94.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…68a3backed Gracie | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Gracie | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…8689backed Gracie | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3589…e4fabacked Gracie | 14c | 70.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Gracie | 20c | 50.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e18…01a2backed Gracie | 33c | 44.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…9093backed Mitchell | 78c | 32.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…5e4fbacked Mitchell | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9b…2e4bbacked Mitchell | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Mitchell | 79c | 17.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mitchell vs. Graciethis page
- Gane vs. VolkovGane won
- Landwehr vs. ChoiChoi won
- Pantoja vs. AsakuraPantoja won
- Rakhmonov vs. GarryRakhmonov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.