Movies · resolved market
Will Gladiator II gross between $67-75m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb67ef5fa3ad9f27a39cfa38fac60e6ed3f8e02b450422c4a2e667c93fa4291ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 20,514$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 4,575$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…ae8bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,099$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 21c | 1,674$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.28 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…94f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,336$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,248$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 17c | 1,066$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 21c | 1,014$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.69 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 15c | 949.31$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 926.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 21c | 914.9$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed No | 76c | 910.65$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 2c | 892.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…a627backed Yes | 1c | 881.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 21c | 863.47$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.79 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…e531backed Yes | 3c | 840$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 18c | 817.01$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 77c | 794.43$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.08 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 18c | 760.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…55b3backed Yes | 14c | 700.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 22c | 658.42$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 20c | 626.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…f72ebacked Yes | 7c | 469.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…76b7backed Yes | 23c | 443.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 12c | 413.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 8c | 411.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 22c | 337$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 8c | 313.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 12c | 311.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 10c | 285.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed Yes | 5c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…95a2backed Yes | 7c | 223.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 24c | 209.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Yes | 20c | 167.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…a818backed Yes | 21c | 164.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…2bd5backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca25…aecebacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…9179backed Yes | 39c | 131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…c7d6backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…ddf5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…7fcebacked Yes | 21c | 118.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7241…2f38backed Yes | 24c | 114.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 24c | 110.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cf…ee56backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c4…fc11backed Yes | 16c | 73.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 22c | 67.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 65.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef7f…e4b4backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…925ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…ab2cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gladiator II gross between $67-75m on opening weekend?this page
- Will Gladiator II gross between $53-60m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will Gladiator II gross between $60-67m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross less than $53m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.