TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c14,502$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4918719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a90…265dbacked Yes10c11,541$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd133…df12backed Yes1c9,944$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes23c3,915$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked No79c3,527$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.8716040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c3,403$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.58520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes18c2,285$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.853225%8 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70be…111fbacked Yes3c2,151$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked No68c2,008$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.146640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes32c1,600$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.091020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe854…aa44backed Yes29c1,519$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…4805backed Yes15c1,489$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes27c1,453$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.49441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6481…55b3backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes2c1,200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-57.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb737…f72ebacked Yes7c943.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ed…c1ecbacked Yes3c900.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1480%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca9…b942backed No74c845.59$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.591145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9885…210ebacked Yes6c800.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes25c700$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1759238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No73c681.69$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6550633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4c9…1a93backed Yes34c587.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes18c549.62$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No79c509.93$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.878840.9%36 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ea…7776backed Yes23c505.06$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffde…e531backed Yes3c452.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.86825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf559…aaeabacked Yes32c428.97$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a50…2d7ebacked Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes30c415.78$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.277414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6211…f94dbacked Yes35c412.09$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c93…4087backed Yes33c390.06$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca67…1668backed Yes27c371.73$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes25c350.81$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.061729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca25…aecebacked Yes27c350$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5152…79a0backed Yes27c337.04$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…a818backed Yes28c331.57$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50d8…8bd6backed Yes28c317.85$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes12c311.49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.937038.6%27 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa84c…f16dbacked Yes18c311.16$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed No68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7241…2f38backed Yes33c294.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc653…9c79backed Yes31c271.24$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a32…8671backed No68c265.34$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-63.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabf…396bbacked Yes40c249.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No69c246.68$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.31947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95e5…44d9backed Yes28c235.7$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes22c228.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.098023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No74c225.04$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.332020%4 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-61.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes15c221.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3316614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64bc…8a87backed Yes28c215.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x10b0…c7d6backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked Yes33c186.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf24…79d1backed Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f6…6e65backed No73c185.19$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed Yes24c170$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ab…9754backed Yes27c166.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c159.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa4…7983backed Yes31c158.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391c…8758backed Yes35c151.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9593…5432backed Yes35c144.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72e1…2bd5backed Yes31c136.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…0fb5backed No75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed Yes17c111.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.99130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a97…0fc7backed No73c111.11$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed No69c110$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.087839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes25c105$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.69442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07a…f71fbacked Yes15c101.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93b…bb37backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…4f92backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc305…a0e0backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c42…3a34backed Yes28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de4…ceb2backed Yes28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No70c87.49$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.079441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a9…de62backed Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes25c83.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f3f…63fcbacked Yes25c79.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab3…8470backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x274f…c70cbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+98.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac2e…95e6backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28d6…8322backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a7…9c79backed Yes30c67.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5690%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3b…0423backed Yes22c66.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.890%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaedc…b839backed Yes29c65.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f7…0fb5backed No77c64.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79d4…9dafbacked Yes33c58.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes28c56.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.753348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5243…1aa6backed Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac37…55eabacked Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb883…597fbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86d…aa39backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdae…5a8abacked Yes30c33.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc96…71b6backed Yes30c32.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.