Movies · resolved market
Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b6d4251a7121e66cce2990e93ccab14084d69e768dedcafd9e8b72743c06de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 14,502$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked Yes | 10c | 11,541$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…df12backed Yes | 1c | 9,944$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 23c | 3,915$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 79c | 3,527$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.87 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 3,403$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 18c | 2,285$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.85 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…111fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,151$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 68c | 2,008$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.14 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 32c | 1,600$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…aa44backed Yes | 29c | 1,519$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 15c | 1,489$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 27c | 1,453$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.4 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…55b3backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…f72ebacked Yes | 7c | 943.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…c1ecbacked Yes | 3c | 900.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…b942backed No | 74c | 845.59$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 6c | 800.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 25c | 700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 681.69$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c9…1a93backed Yes | 34c | 587.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 549.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 79c | 509.93$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…7776backed Yes | 23c | 505.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…e531backed Yes | 3c | 452.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…aaeabacked Yes | 32c | 428.97$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…2d7ebacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 30c | 415.78$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…f94dbacked Yes | 35c | 412.09$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…4087backed Yes | 33c | 390.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…1668backed Yes | 27c | 371.73$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 25c | 350.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca25…aecebacked Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…79a0backed Yes | 27c | 337.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…a818backed Yes | 28c | 331.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…8bd6backed Yes | 28c | 317.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 12c | 311.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa84c…f16dbacked Yes | 18c | 311.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7241…2f38backed Yes | 33c | 294.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…9c79backed Yes | 31c | 271.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a32…8671backed No | 68c | 265.34$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…396bbacked Yes | 40c | 249.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 69c | 246.68$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Yes | 28c | 235.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 22c | 228.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 74c | 225.04$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 15c | 221.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bc…8a87backed Yes | 28c | 215.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…c7d6backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked Yes | 33c | 186.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…79d1backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed No | 73c | 185.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…9754backed Yes | 27c | 166.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 159.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…7983backed Yes | 31c | 158.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…8758backed Yes | 35c | 151.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…5432backed Yes | 35c | 144.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…2bd5backed Yes | 31c | 136.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…0fb5backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 17c | 111.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed No | 73c | 111.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 25c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07a…f71fbacked Yes | 15c | 101.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…4f92backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc305…a0e0backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c42…3a34backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de4…ceb2backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 70c | 87.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…de62backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 25c | 83.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3f…63fcbacked Yes | 25c | 79.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab3…8470backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…c70cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…95e6backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 30c | 67.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…0423backed Yes | 22c | 66.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedc…b839backed Yes | 29c | 65.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…0fb5backed No | 77c | 64.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…9dafbacked Yes | 33c | 58.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 28c | 56.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…1aa6backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…597fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…aa39backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…5a8abacked Yes | 30c | 33.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc96…71b6backed Yes | 30c | 32.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?this page
- Will Gladiator II gross between $53-60m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will Gladiator II gross between $60-67m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross between $67-75m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross less than $53m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.