Movies · resolved market
Will Gladiator II gross less than $53m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb705a2b7001a04227722ad1baf3a0bf98b0f5caf3d6b64c09fe07645ffc997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes | 10c | 7,309$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 6,286$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 5c | 5,826$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 2,474$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,356$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a4…386bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,977$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,783$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 10c | 1,674$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.05 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 8c | 1,042$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 15c | 925.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 9c | 918.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 10c | 795.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 11c | 760$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 16c | 759.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 7c | 744.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad9…ee23backed Yes | 11c | 504.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 10c | 418.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…a158backed Yes | 16c | 379.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 12c | 311.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 251.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…11edbacked Yes | 7c | 233.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…26febacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a1…13bebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 18c | 193.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…c70cbacked Yes | 5c | 193.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 185.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca48…72b1backed Yes | 12c | 132.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 14c | 107.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 16c | 106.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…3689backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…3d3dbacked Yes | 18c | 57.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…0df7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gladiator II gross less than $53m on opening weekend?this page
- Will Gladiator II gross between $53-60m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will Gladiator II gross between $60-67m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross between $67-75m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.