Movies · resolved market
Will Gladiator II gross between $60-67m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e4afa7ac115c559598ceea3bc38ef3dddac32eb8d5c5585422e521c2b93e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 13,802$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.79 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked Yes | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 34c | 3,500$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.99 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…29febacked Yes | 2c | 2,099$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 37c | 1,786$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.25 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 28c | 1,691$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.71 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…a627backed Yes | 12c | 1,602$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 25c | 1,220$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.41 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 56c | 1,183$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.17 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 62c | 1,126$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.48 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 75c | 1,106$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,024$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.01 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 31c | 779.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 12c | 725.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 68c | 713.7$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.36 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 667$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 36c | 582.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 9c | 554.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 34c | 512.12$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 28c | 505.37$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 39c | 483.16$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 66c | 400$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.6 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…b2adbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a6…3292backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…55b3backed Yes | 29c | 341.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 30c | 336.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 18c | 311.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…79f2backed Yes | 31c | 310.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 308.78$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…ae8bbacked Yes | 10c | 295.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…a818backed Yes | 43c | 272.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 20c | 255.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 38c | 255.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 9c | 231.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed Yes | 50c | 226$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…94f1backed Yes | 25c | 201.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5459…9b52backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 197.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 22c | 158.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…3057backed No | 58c | 136.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…4087backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 32c | 129.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…ddf5backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…2f89backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 26c | 110.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 27c | 100.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e8…98a4backed Yes | 30c | 99.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…ad0cbacked Yes | 62c | 96.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 31c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes | 15c | 92.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb36e…d749backed Yes | 27c | 91.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…d5edbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…e531backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 32c | 75.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…2bd5backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 49c | 66.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…09dfbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 68c | 56.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301c…3660backed Yes | 41c | 48.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…9a86backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…95a2backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 30c | 41.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 44c | 40.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…9c24backed No | 34c | 38.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41a…5b03backed Yes | 42c | 37.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…7594backed No | 37c | 35.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…4a57backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…ca22backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 76c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 59c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gladiator II gross between $60-67m on opening weekend?this page
- Will Gladiator II gross between $53-60m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will Gladiator II gross between $67-75m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross less than $53m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.