Movies · resolved market
Will Gladiator II gross between $53-60m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x546aefea4b12e037e742d97313c6eeb0a3fad8641fa7d3af7a843d661eff62e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 6c | 8,548$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.24 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 63c | 2,372$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.8 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,207$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.65 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,707$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.79 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 32c | 1,654$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.19 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 21c | 1,581$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.37 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,481$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.17 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 24c | 1,259$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.12 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38e…7d84backed No | 29c | 793$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 3c | 645.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 33c | 594$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.9 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 54c | 555$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 14c | 553.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.41 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 6c | 544.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 496.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.49 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…a158backed Yes | 41c | 451.76$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 34c | 382.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.7 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 78c | 358.42$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 63c | 356.57$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…c20cbacked Yes | 15c | 332.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 42c | 316.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 43c | 311.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.11 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed Yes | 33c | 303$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 40c | 302.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.04 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 14c | 275$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.01 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 24c | 272$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.72 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 80c | 235.84$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 46c | 218.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 32c | 199$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 36c | 180.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked No | 28c | 178.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 14c | 166.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…9c24backed Yes | 36c | 164.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…2f89backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…7776backed No | 71c | 149.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 61c | 136.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 14c | 110.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 38c | 106.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.31per pick | 31cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…ad0cbacked Yes | 58c | 79.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 75.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 39c | 69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…3d3dbacked Yes | 20c | 59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…4087backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…9a86backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…7594backed Yes | 36c | 40.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…09dfbacked Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9489…933abacked No | 27c | 38.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…3c95backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 45c | 33.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1a…e11bbacked Yes | 37c | 27.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 41c | 25.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 74c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…0fdcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…95a2backed No | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…e8a7backed Yes | 79c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…4174backed Yes | 79c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…b676backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gladiator II gross between $53-60m on opening weekend?this page
- Will Gladiator II gross between $60-67m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross between $67-75m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross less than $53m on opening weekend?No won
- Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.