TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Makhachev vs. Moicano

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Makhachevof Makhachev, Moicano
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$272,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$317,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,309 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x34ea…17d7backed Moicano10c24,402$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Moicano10c11,911$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.635826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5765…7ecbbacked Moicano10c11,423$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Moicano9c10,366$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.4219531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Moicano8c10,012$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.086650%33 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d83…5308backed Moicano13c7,569$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x364e…491cbacked Moicano11c7,511$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Moicano8c6,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49042042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Moicano10c5,351$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf6a…3dacbacked Moicano10c5,041$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18da…ae17backed Moicano12c4,836$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+77.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Moicano9c4,126$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.0211761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Moicano9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Moicano4c2,733$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6114129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Moicano14c2,214$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Moicano11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22025251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3220…cba1backed Moicano10c1,921$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd4…a98cbacked Moicano13c1,908$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7321…1892backed Moicano12c1,783$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c9…457cbacked Moicano9c1,585$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b0…504fbacked Moicano10c1,504$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd4…af2ebacked Moicano7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e4…b725backed Moicano10c1,449$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9150%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3717…a54fbacked Moicano11c1,228$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c50…7403backed Moicano10c1,223$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.291838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1098backed Moicano9c1,104$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Moicano9c1,091$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7810040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33fe…0cccbacked Moicano10c1,036$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55df…67fcbacked Moicano11c1,018$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Moicano10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Moicano10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Moicano9c999.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902564%16 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff2…2602backed Moicano10c999.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd445…abf3backed Moicano10c999.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2c…9b1cbacked Moicano10c993.6$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b9…6a5ebacked Moicano9c991.89$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e98…c064backed Moicano12c978.8$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Moicano10c976.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.410529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb779…2fc0backed Moicano10c920.53$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Moicano9c917.57$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…3ab9backed Moicano11c916.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Moicano10c900$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf893…ebf1backed Moicano11c885.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Moicano3c854.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2623537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Moicano10c850$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8513041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a38…c0e6backed Moicano12c802.5$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.31030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7242…8244backed Moicano10c800$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f91…dd16backed Moicano9c785.56$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+65%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Moicano11c776.34$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.369737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…6e8ebacked Moicano9c702.38$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.214143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Moicano10c644.94$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.333345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e6…017ebacked Moicano10c621.19$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c0e…3f36backed Moicano9c611.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+79.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09a0…2531backed Moicano12c582.57$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239a…76e5backed Moicano9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+47.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3158…0b8dbacked Moicano9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Moicano9c535.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x538a…bd78backed Moicano9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.473036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Moicano10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3861…b70cbacked Moicano10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb39…ed7abacked Moicano9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e24…51afbacked Moicano10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…039cbacked Moicano10c499.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Moicano12c496$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5928333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa10d…acc6backed Moicano10c480.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick20cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ace…78ccbacked Moicano10c472.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f397backed Moicano11c468.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+83.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ee…e21dbacked Moicano9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5d0…03e4backed Moicano11c440.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Moicano9c419.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Moicano12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506845.6%31 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Moicano11c393.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.272128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Moicano9c392.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.314134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Moicano12c369.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4413160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafb3…7072backed Moicano11c363.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf1…19ebbacked Moicano11c362.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x367d…06c5backed Moicano9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee07…f564backed Moicano11c332.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85f1…34ecbacked Moicano10c320.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332853.6%15 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+70.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x09b0…0261backed Moicano13c319$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8442…1fdfbacked Moicano10c300.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7073…420cbacked Moicano10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd7…a691backed Moicano13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdea0…9f7abacked Moicano10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…341bbacked Moicano8c299.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Moicano10c279.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a7…086ebacked Moicano11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…fb07backed Moicano11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+78.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Moicano10c263.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3226743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c28…7c3dbacked Moicano12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87e9…67c6backed Moicano10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.49425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b5…2c02backed Moicano10c243.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaec…dd15backed Moicano9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+81.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Moicano11c218.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2418644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b49…9ee9backed Moicano11c214.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2258backed Moicano12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7836…6bc4backed Moicano10c206.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe274…dc85backed Moicano10c204.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.352240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Moicano11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d58…0c6ebacked Moicano10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.