TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dvalishviliof Dvalishvili, Nurmagomedov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$337,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$352,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $337,197 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 542 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef38…ae8cbacked Nurmagomedov69c47,367$32,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,917.726453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5735…f1f7backed Dvalishvili29c30,524$8,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,574.731154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…ab4dbacked Nurmagomedov55c23,600$12,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,899.991030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Dvalishvili49c18,213$8,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,224.95944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Dvalishvili28c18,148$5,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,119.712626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-52.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Nurmagomedov70c18,007$12,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,605.031346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Dvalishvili27c15,576$4,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,434.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3275…e7fcbacked Nurmagomedov72c13,295$9,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,580.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8082…b212backed Nurmagomedov44c10,334$4,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,558.521070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3291…e502backed Dvalishvili25c10,139$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,558.531752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Nurmagomedov73c10,098$7,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,353.473661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Dvalishvili30c8,207$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,744.611855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaca…cbdbbacked Nurmagomedov74c8,000$5,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,926.071040%4 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-34.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Dvalishvili27c8,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8403959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Nurmagomedov75c6,920$5,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,164.211631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Dvalishvili33c6,153$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,110.523537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c0e…3f36backed Dvalishvili30c5,816$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,071.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+79.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Dvalishvili30c5,667$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,966.871546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Dvalishvili43c5,458$2,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.457646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Dvalishvili30c5,449$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,837.7235826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Dvalishvili62c5,291$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.6314129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Nurmagomedov70c4,558$3,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,211.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Nurmagomedov70c3,872$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,728.1721554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Dvalishvili72c3,849$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.661450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Dvalishvili51c3,528$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Nurmagomedov75c3,464$2,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.155265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Nurmagomedov72c3,333$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.733250%16 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ee…735abacked Nurmagomedov71c2,775$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc0…334bbacked Nurmagomedov73c2,741$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Dvalishvili30c2,477$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.881353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x170e…d9bebacked Nurmagomedov71c2,458$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a1…8ccdbacked Dvalishvili29c2,381$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+109.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a7…c0dfbacked Dvalishvili30c2,205$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.293748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Nurmagomedov69c2,161$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.074156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb73c…45f2backed Dvalishvili31c2,114$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+157.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f6…b703backed Nurmagomedov21c2,111$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Dvalishvili28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8914…d0c5backed Nurmagomedov72c1,806$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Dvalishvili30c1,805$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.339959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9320…f7d7backed Dvalishvili28c1,800$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2964057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Dvalishvili24c1,795$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.996248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e25…043ebacked Nurmagomedov71c1,725$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.151233.3%4 W · 8 L-4.4wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-55.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2ca6…2429backed Dvalishvili27c1,680$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5415…f747backed Nurmagomedov73c1,680$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20e…5998backed Dvalishvili71c1,624$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.651154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Nurmagomedov72c1,533$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10014045.7%64 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…f44cbacked Dvalishvili30c1,526$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.06875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+44.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Dvalishvili29c1,523$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.9316247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Dvalishvili26c1,500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Nurmagomedov8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nurmagomedov70c1,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9642042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…a443backed Nurmagomedov72c1,458$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Nurmagomedov69c1,407$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.834259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Nurmagomedov71c1,392$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.448348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Nurmagomedov2c1,370$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.47853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecdf…6c07backed Nurmagomedov73c1,370$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Dvalishvili25c1,345$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.8210529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked Nurmagomedov75c1,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbdd…d33fbacked Nurmagomedov71c1,238$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.18366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c03…f77fbacked Dvalishvili28c1,237$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+192.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Dvalishvili29c1,200$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.993435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33fe…0cccbacked Dvalishvili30c1,149$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe9…fecdbacked Dvalishvili29c1,146$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Dvalishvili29c1,127$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.243345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x846a…44b7backed Nurmagomedov72c1,122$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.86580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Nurmagomedov72c1,111$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Nurmagomedov3c1,111$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.334330.2%13 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Dvalishvili29c1,093$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Dvalishvili12c1,070$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.342360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Nurmagomedov70c1,029$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick56cpaid-77.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5037…a863backed Dvalishvili30c1,009$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.5611054.5%60 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Dvalishvili69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.01757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61b…f73ebacked Nurmagomedov73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Nurmagomedov70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Dvalishvili30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7006349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Nurmagomedov72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f7…0108backed Dvalishvili27c999.98$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+183.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Dvalishvili26c999.97$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.982634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62dd…869abacked Nurmagomedov70c999.96$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7c0…8746backed Dvalishvili30c999.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Nurmagomedov72c973.2$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Dvalishvili32c965.57$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.921031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…8882backed Dvalishvili33c912.48$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.03650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Dvalishvili29c888.45$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.313041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Nurmagomedov70c876.4$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.242560%15 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Nurmagomedov12c874.92$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1530…562dbacked Dvalishvili27c849.98$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x421e…bc7fbacked Nurmagomedov16c849.7$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1108…cb47backed Nurmagomedov72c845$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7212…0536backed Nurmagomedov71c843.57$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef04…88c3backed Nurmagomedov71c820$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Dvalishvili28c799.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5765040%20 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e98…c064backed Nurmagomedov72c755.26$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Dvalishvili31c753.85$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.162751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Dvalishvili28c749.98$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.983240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Dvalishvili27c749.96$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.47988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+54.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Nurmagomedov4c745.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-73.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Nurmagomedov72c715.28$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5151675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Nurmagomedov71c704.32$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.4453956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Nurmagomedov71c702.68$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.