TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x14dd…13ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
190
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 51 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2025, EDT482.1%1 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$89
Hornets vs. Warriorsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$11.41
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$14.94
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.15
Bucks vs. Rocketsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$12.12
Celtics vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$105.14
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$209.83
Clippers vs. Pistonsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$71.7
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Wizards vs. Magicbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15.84
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$127.2
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$16.73
Heat vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$22.37
Lakers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$202.03
Suns vs. Spursbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$134.25
Cavaliers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$58.15
Grizzlies vs. Pacersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$80.5
Hornets vs. Nuggetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$195.03
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$56.25
Magic vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$41.18
Bulls vs. Knicksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$116.82
Hornets vs. Lakersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+1,485.3%+$1,722.98
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$263.66
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$225.57
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$996Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$995.95
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$774Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+790.8%+$6,122.08
Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+79.8%+$75.84
Will the Bills beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$311.42
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$199.88
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$363.12
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$279.92
Will the Chiefs beat the Commanders in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,689Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$1,689.15
Will the Commanders beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20.92
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$83.56
Will the Commanders beat the Bills in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$36.51
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$313.36
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$365.42
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$61.2
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,885Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,885.11
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$262.54
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,274.4
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Commanders vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT323.1%1 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-94.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$857Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$856.82
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$669.66
Newcastle United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$384.11
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,856Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,856.18
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$559Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$559.12
Chelsea wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,308Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,308.48
Will Southampton be relegated?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$30.64
Manchester United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$177.63
Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$109
Will Wolves win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$37.78
Will Fulham win on 2025-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will Southampton win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$16.75
Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$132
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$52.68
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$48.5
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$161.91
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$78.41
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$67.66
Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$65.34
Will Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$99.47
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$74.78
Will West Ham win on 2025-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$22.91
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+187.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.39
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,858Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+5,195%+$96,540.07
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.12
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$682.18
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.57
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$971Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$970.8
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,072Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,071.91
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$963Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$963.31
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$588.79
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$391.61
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$124.2
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$535.2
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,314Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,314.45
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$92.94
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,482Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,481.63
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,473Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,472.9
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+66.9%+$19.95
Will Dinamo Zagreb beat Arsenal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$42.18
Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$41
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+77.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.2
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$283
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.52
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+1,853.3%+$2,385.13
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$127.5
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,311Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,311.24
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$369.8
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$271.71
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$110.04
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,141.84
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$164.98
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.52
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.14
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.91
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.9
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$28
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST80%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$72.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$74
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.92
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.36
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.43
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$257
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$135.69
All 8 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Nurmagomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$106.78
Prochazka vs. Hillbacked Hill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$62.52
Will Ben Shelton win the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$49.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$49.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2025 January hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$106.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$257.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$28.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.