World Politics · resolved market
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87c91c07f3f83b6a52d816d8e95d3be0c1040857e9d2949d67302a0288f181ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,815,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,991,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,815,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 420 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69bf…61d9backed Yes | 8c | 414,841$31,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…e1d9backed Yes | 7c | 241,427$15,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,763.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac46…c8bebacked Yes | 1c | 224,110$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77dc…7897backed Yes | 6c | 205,805$12,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,940.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 7c | 191,997$12,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,625.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…4e94backed Yes | 5c | 183,404$8,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,526.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…8e71backed Yes | 3c | 169,306$5,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,082.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…9437backed Yes | 6c | 163,118$9,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,424.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 124,444$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.22 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…9381backed Yes | 1c | 114,104$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…ee73backed Yes | 5c | 105,775$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cba…5850backed Yes | 7c | 97,331$6,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,776.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 1c | 82,722$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.24 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes | 7c | 78,892$5,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,781.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 71,497$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.08 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…895fbacked Yes | 7c | 70,998$5,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,049.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed Yes | 1c | 68,104$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…98cebacked Yes | 1c | 66,815$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d80…452dbacked Yes | 2c | 63,076$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…4901backed Yes | 2c | 50,201$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…c419backed Yes | 6c | 49,867$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 2c | 43,366$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 2c | 39,509$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…8b98backed Yes | 7c | 39,075$2,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,885.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 37,885$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.72 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410e…0a73backed Yes | 4c | 37,292$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 5c | 33,902$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.85 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…fc5ebacked Yes | 4c | 30,960$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b8…b596backed Yes | 7c | 28,898$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b85…4be3backed Yes | 6c | 27,231$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 26,829$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.12 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 25,000$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…3036backed Yes | 3c | 24,502$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…6285backed Yes | 0c | 22,925$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…5c9bbacked Yes | 1c | 22,571$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb8…c506backed Yes | 2c | 22,435$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…773abacked Yes | 0c | 21,378$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e13…dc49backed Yes | 4c | 20,400$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…6365backed Yes | 2c | 19,227$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 18,410$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.29 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…cb74backed Yes | 9c | 16,762$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…d2f9backed Yes | 7c | 16,736$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…b4c2backed Yes | 2c | 16,488$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4e…1836backed Yes | 4c | 16,018$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…8405backed Yes | 1c | 15,720$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…37ddbacked Yes | 6c | 15,423$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…23e4backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 2c | 14,600$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.92 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…5a43backed Yes | 2c | 14,255$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb645…33eabacked Yes | 7c | 13,899$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…3eb6backed Yes | 2c | 12,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 11,595$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.54 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…4a70backed Yes | 4c | 11,109$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 10,825$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.96 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…1a7ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,823$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…a551backed Yes | 0c | 10,022$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef2…6d23backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ff…040bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,981$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1883…ff30backed Yes | 2c | 9,291$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 2c | 9,248$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…bb37backed Yes | 5c | 9,022$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…2194backed Yes | 7c | 8,930$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d05…673fbacked Yes | 5c | 8,797$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 6c | 7,724$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.07 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 3c | 7,565$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.21 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…b6fdbacked Yes | 7c | 7,479$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…c9d9backed Yes | 2c | 7,235$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 5c | 7,167$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.43 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4957…3eb7backed Yes | 4c | 7,084$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 6,900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0d…751dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,869$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 1c | 6,644$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e7…15c9backed Yes | 7c | 6,365$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…4064backed Yes | 5c | 6,097$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df3…98aabacked Yes | 3c | 6,090$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf455…0f00backed Yes | 8c | 5,957$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed Yes | 1c | 5,788$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…dc38backed Yes | 9c | 5,745$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efa…6a86backed Yes | 5c | 5,720$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 5,616$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.1 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…2cfbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,406$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…660dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,362$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,349$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…09e8backed Yes | 6c | 5,310$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4144…be90backed Yes | 5c | 5,196$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d6…d2b1backed Yes | 2c | 4,995$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,950$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4dbfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,821$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…3e18backed Yes | 3c | 4,300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…3fdebacked Yes | 5c | 4,279$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 2c | 4,250$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f5…84f2backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…03b8backed Yes | 4c | 3,660$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed2…8c1fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,621$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d57…a286backed Yes | 2c | 3,568$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 3c | 3,500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…6010backed Yes | 8c | 3,447$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?this page
- Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes won
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.