World Politics · resolved market
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1aaecf13ff5e25332f4b5bf9a6109724722d54c1e43462ad3cc962d373b27e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,469,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $706,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,469,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 104,320$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.19 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…e370backed Yes | 0c | 88,120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…ccb0backed Yes | 0c | 63,387$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…fddfbacked Yes | 0c | 59,930$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f8…cfd0backed Yes | 0c | 59,070$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…d78ebacked Yes | 0c | 58,050$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…965bbacked Yes | 0c | 57,600$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac3…3544backed Yes | 0c | 55,520$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…e29ebacked Yes | 0c | 55,380$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…7473backed Yes | 0c | 55,150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…2534backed Yes | 0c | 54,200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bb…559ebacked Yes | 0c | 53,090$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd5…b91fbacked Yes | 0c | 52,550$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…4d2ebacked Yes | 0c | 52,320$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…d794backed Yes | 0c | 50,900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…07bebacked Yes | 0c | 50,600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…a986backed Yes | 0c | 50,580$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…0aefbacked Yes | 0c | 50,550$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…6ae5backed Yes | 0c | 50,450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82a…8838backed Yes | 0c | 50,220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…2acfbacked Yes | 0c | 50,090$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c4…7d5abacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…4f6cbacked Yes | 0c | 49,840$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 48,471$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…213bbacked Yes | 0c | 48,280$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…8cd8backed Yes | 0c | 47,060$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 1c | 44,871$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…7e5bbacked Yes | 0c | 43,680$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…f399backed Yes | 0c | 43,680$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…fb62backed Yes | 2c | 43,127$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd3…27b8backed Yes | 0c | 42,110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181a…3f27backed Yes | 0c | 41,430$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…c3b4backed Yes | 0c | 40,880$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…77fdbacked Yes | 0c | 39,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 38,857$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.55 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…858ebacked Yes | 0c | 38,750$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7749…6b1ebacked Yes | 0c | 37,700$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…f602backed Yes | 0c | 37,369$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…83bdbacked Yes | 0c | 37,360$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…a0eabacked Yes | 0c | 37,358$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…4f26backed Yes | 0c | 37,358$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6b…dff6backed Yes | 0c | 37,357$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…d5b7backed Yes | 0c | 37,353$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…975dbacked Yes | 0c | 37,352$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c5…250ebacked Yes | 0c | 37,349$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…1c95backed Yes | 0c | 37,345$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb6…dce0backed Yes | 0c | 37,345$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…03a0backed Yes | 0c | 37,340$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…3d62backed Yes | 0c | 37,225$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b44cbacked Yes | 0c | 37,224$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…0e5abacked Yes | 0c | 37,220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…c5dbbacked Yes | 0c | 37,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 37,034$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 36,512$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…f649backed Yes | 0c | 36,450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…c822backed Yes | 0c | 35,870$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…7e4dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…e147backed Yes | 0c | 35,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…338dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,380$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349c…2d15backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e29…fe9ebacked Yes | 0c | 34,680$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…af75backed Yes | 0c | 33,610$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…44dfbacked Yes | 0c | 33,330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…c81ebacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…8726backed Yes | 0c | 31,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 30,221$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e1…79f4backed Yes | 0c | 29,990$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…707abacked Yes | 0c | 29,180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x836b…94fbbacked Yes | 0c | 24,125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…3c96backed Yes | 0c | 21,885$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa292…0afcbacked Yes | 0c | 21,740$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…22f8backed Yes | 1c | 21,195$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -46%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1674…c7b1backed Yes | 0c | 19,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…501fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,998$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,105$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…5838backed Yes | 0c | 17,060$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 0c | 16,655$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 15,962$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…38e1backed Yes | 1c | 15,417$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 15,233$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabba…d3a5backed Yes | 1c | 14,347$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…bcd2backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fd…252cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a7…d5c4backed Yes | 1c | 11,987$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,503$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…e82fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,291$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…2e2cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…c469backed Yes | 0c | 10,023$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb13…9b49backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c2d3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…4af0backed Yes | 1c | 8,887$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…af58backed Yes | 1c | 8,066$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3074…67b6backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…734ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,872$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 6,773$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…5e14backed Yes | 2c | 6,394$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 1c | 6,206$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31e…384cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,056$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…1b1cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,998$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…bfd4backed Yes | 1c | 5,970$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?this page
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes won
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.