World Politics · resolved market
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6edda3512ecf43002ea175e0af667868979a83994111a6103d845b4df5f88ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,431,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $549,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,431,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 847,371$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.1 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 454,377$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.98 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…2852backed Yes | 0c | 347,841$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af1…9986backed Yes | 0c | 139,050$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 131,400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.3 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44cd…c02bbacked Yes | 0c | 128,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa274…8068backed Yes | 0c | 108,440$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 0c | 105,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 0c | 96,639$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.29 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 87,386$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.77 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 85,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…2a16backed Yes | 0c | 78,590$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4504…17cabacked Yes | 0c | 73,030$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e27…05d2backed Yes | 0c | 71,550$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1737…0fbabacked Yes | 0c | 71,450$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…0db9backed Yes | 0c | 68,241$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d1…2ff7backed Yes | 0c | 67,510$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3e8dbacked Yes | 0c | 66,298$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…34e8backed Yes | 0c | 64,903$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1830…ec0fbacked Yes | 0c | 63,500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…a23bbacked Yes | 1c | 58,564$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…435abacked Yes | 0c | 58,562$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…96d2backed Yes | 0c | 57,320$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29eb…6e8fbacked Yes | 1c | 57,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1754…2d7ebacked Yes | 0c | 56,450$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb12…5134backed Yes | 0c | 55,840$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…ce79backed Yes | 0c | 54,260$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c22…9a1fbacked Yes | 0c | 52,888$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…810cbacked Yes | 0c | 52,690$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad5…7b02backed Yes | 0c | 52,480$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…255fbacked Yes | 0c | 51,943$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…7dffbacked Yes | 1c | 51,800$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082e…4e50backed Yes | 1c | 51,600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…1ef7backed Yes | 0c | 51,460$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…6e34backed Yes | 0c | 51,380$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 51,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c1…f7e6backed Yes | 0c | 50,746$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccb…c0a3backed Yes | 0c | 50,690$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…4662backed Yes | 0c | 50,680$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…e244backed Yes | 0c | 50,620$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…60bebacked Yes | 0c | 50,600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…feeabacked Yes | 0c | 50,490$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1b…cbd2backed Yes | 0c | 50,390$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e1…d3bbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf56…1833backed Yes | 0c | 50,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…688dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…e0d2backed Yes | 0c | 49,780$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x618a…0664backed Yes | 0c | 49,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc010…b2cdbacked Yes | 0c | 48,830$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…a45abacked Yes | 0c | 48,380$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…a02fbacked Yes | 0c | 46,730$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…4d1fbacked Yes | 0c | 46,126$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…21f3backed Yes | 1c | 44,614$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5513backed Yes | 0c | 44,590$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f98…f178backed Yes | 0c | 44,030$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…90c4backed Yes | 0c | 43,720$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6002…77e9backed Yes | 0c | 43,600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…2935backed Yes | 0c | 41,560$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5433…1299backed Yes | 0c | 41,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…d95ebacked Yes | 0c | 40,370$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e5…86dabacked Yes | 0c | 40,240$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…6507backed Yes | 0c | 39,860$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e6…35cbbacked Yes | 0c | 39,070$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…2e2cbacked Yes | 0c | 38,260$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…2705backed Yes | 0c | 37,050$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…0ab7backed Yes | 0c | 36,667$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…2c74backed Yes | 0c | 36,660$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7998…1e31backed Yes | 0c | 36,450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…1f3bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d9dfbacked Yes | 0c | 36,450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf66…cebebacked Yes | 0c | 36,450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…5388backed Yes | 0c | 36,430$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…a744backed Yes | 0c | 36,310$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…93a9backed Yes | 0c | 35,870$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…a8a7backed Yes | 0c | 35,630$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…44f8backed Yes | 0c | 35,560$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a65…0fa1backed Yes | 0c | 34,960$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9b…ca5ebacked Yes | 1c | 34,400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…f8f2backed Yes | 0c | 34,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2e…14b5backed Yes | 0c | 34,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c9…c46dbacked Yes | 0c | 33,410$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181b…be49backed Yes | 0c | 33,330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…c261backed Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec27…3efbbacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…baa2backed Yes | 0c | 31,660$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…4dcfbacked Yes | 0c | 31,310$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6f…d0e9backed Yes | 0c | 31,120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ff…4cd8backed Yes | 0c | 30,746$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…a583backed Yes | 0c | 30,746$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…09a0backed Yes | 0c | 30,710$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…5f89backed Yes | 0c | 30,291$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…a0e8backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 27,560$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…bd2ebacked Yes | 0c | 27,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5418…4e62backed Yes | 0c | 27,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…8538backed Yes | 0c | 27,380$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…65c8backed Yes | 0c | 27,360$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…f229backed Yes | 0c | 27,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…f28fbacked Yes | 1c | 27,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?this page
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes won
- Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.