World Politics · resolved market
Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51110ae62047b920af6e69c02d916564e6930a5a3b20753d3d1532087ad7b958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,150,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,150,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 934,748$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220.32 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 284,228$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.39 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 124,825$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 98,100$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 0c | 97,247$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.89 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98ca…70e6backed Yes | 1c | 61,462$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5166…2329backed Yes | 1c | 61,176$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…b951backed Yes | 0c | 55,312$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1883…ff30backed Yes | 0c | 55,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 41,763$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…e361backed Yes | 0c | 38,333$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…0048backed Yes | 0c | 37,730$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…0ea5backed Yes | 0c | 36,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5418…4e62backed Yes | 0c | 33,250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…5d45backed Yes | 0c | 30,920$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec27…3efbbacked Yes | 0c | 26,333$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…7a57backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…bd2ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…202abacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…2852backed Yes | 0c | 22,820$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9b…ca5ebacked Yes | 1c | 22,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…4649backed Yes | 0c | 21,020$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…a81dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…0ab7backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…77fdbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,843$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…c793backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd5…ce6bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d4…66fcbacked Yes | 1c | 16,104$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…3877backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…7862backed Yes | 0c | 14,605$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…6257backed Yes | 0c | 13,560$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…0591backed Yes | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…5189backed Yes | 0c | 13,050$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…c325backed Yes | 0c | 12,340$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…08cebacked Yes | 0c | 11,667$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b44…1f76backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…03b8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…8b8cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…77fabacked Yes | 0c | 9,250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…d4d5backed Yes | 0c | 9,225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…435abacked Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 8,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…21f3backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…6ea2backed Yes | 0c | 7,272$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…097ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…9decbacked Yes | 1c | 5,504$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…94e7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdc…ea3fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,417$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…a23bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…69babacked Yes | 0c | 4,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…fbb1backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…ec0abacked Yes | 1c | 3,832$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…3ea7backed Yes | 0c | 3,517$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c1…3835backed Yes | 0c | 3,443$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…da33backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…bb91backed Yes | 1c | 2,556$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?this page
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes won
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.