World Politics · resolved market
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e6c1227c1ee562cbd906099dadbd658ddca8cdb9730736857b4d82701c6393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,653,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,734,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,653,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 464 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed No | 3c | 749,824$19,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,866.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…11f2backed No | 2c | 275,454$5,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,704.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…7820backed No | 1c | 250,834$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,729.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked No | 2c | 236,574$5,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,375.66 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked No | 4c | 166,000$6,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,116.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 3c | 119,797$3,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,165.33 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed No | 4c | 115,555$4,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,221.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…2c1dbacked No | 0c | 108,266$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 103,440$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.15 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 2c | 100,010$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.2 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…bbe0backed No | 2c | 99,912$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 1c | 82,388$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.41 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…23e2backed No | 4c | 77,103$3,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,108.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed No | 3c | 71,510$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.87 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…8e3bbacked No | 2c | 67,976$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 67,920$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.13 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…c699backed No | 1c | 64,182$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e3…22d5backed No | 4c | 56,112$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c51…2badbacked No | 0c | 54,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 53,971$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.54 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 5c | 53,080$2,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,453.99 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 0c | 41,996$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.43 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…0adfbacked No | 0c | 41,481$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…e1d9backed No | 11c | 40,348$4,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed No | 3c | 40,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed No | 3c | 33,810$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…8f27backed No | 4c | 32,954$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…82fabacked No | 4c | 30,204$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…773abacked No | 3c | 29,767$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed No | 3c | 29,326$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.8 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 28,933$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.16 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe700…7005backed No | 5c | 28,014$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked No | 5c | 23,272$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…51b7backed No | 5c | 22,926$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 22,557$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.43 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…734abacked No | 4c | 22,298$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada2…408dbacked No | 9c | 21,546$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca83…ba47backed No | 3c | 21,085$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 2c | 20,000$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.25 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed No | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed No | 8c | 19,360$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd014…1253backed No | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed No | 4c | 18,930$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.64 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 6c | 18,397$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 5c | 18,000$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.93 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 17,583$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.31 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…8410backed No | 1c | 17,048$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…d6e1backed No | 4c | 17,046$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…42cbbacked No | 3c | 16,194$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…3d80backed No | 4c | 16,109$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…2851backed No | 7c | 16,075$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 6c | 15,100$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.6 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 4c | 15,000$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.72 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 5c | 15,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003e…fc58backed No | 0c | 13,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked No | 7c | 12,671$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.87 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…218dbacked No | 4c | 12,589$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 8c | 11,717$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.39 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…4a64backed No | 6c | 10,915$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…7b5ebacked No | 2c | 10,361$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 6c | 10,328$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.83 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c4…7d5abacked No | 4c | 10,226$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…4bcabacked No | 5c | 10,225$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b09…c16bbacked No | 2c | 9,983$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 10c | 9,506$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.6 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…faadbacked No | 5c | 9,431$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +742.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 7c | 9,138$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.03 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 4c | 9,114$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…4389backed No | 2c | 9,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…98cebacked No | 1c | 8,893$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…7462backed No | 3c | 8,883$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed No | 4c | 8,678$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…03b8backed No | 6c | 8,488$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked No | 5c | 8,433$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac46…c8bebacked No | 9c | 8,331$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3259…0ed1backed No | 12c | 8,126$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…2e72backed No | 4c | 7,953$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked No | 6c | 7,564$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.27 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6f…1002backed No | 6c | 7,290$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked No | 4c | 7,244$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…aae9backed No | 4c | 7,150$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 5c | 7,100$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.71 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…f6e9backed No | 8c | 6,527$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed No | 5c | 6,513$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…6902backed No | 6c | 6,355$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed No | 3c | 6,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2748…6a07backed No | 5c | 6,308$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5413…d187backed No | 5c | 6,253$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5371…704fbacked No | 5c | 6,199$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 4c | 6,152$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed No | 3c | 6,101$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…880abacked No | 4c | 6,064$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…0672backed No | 4c | 5,974$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 5,545$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.58 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fb…776abacked No | 4c | 5,442$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcade…79edbacked No | 4c | 5,395$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed No | 4c | 5,381$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…537cbacked No | 4c | 5,240$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…e82fbacked No | 6c | 5,096$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?this page
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.