World Politics · resolved market
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027fb2d0015f7fbae58491502e906948373c88cd49dc90f0d36c1e692644e42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,731,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,570,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,731,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 168,756$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.18 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…dd74backed Yes | 0c | 140,918$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 83,816$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.14 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 60,907$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.79 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…fb62backed Yes | 3c | 52,145$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c4…7d5abacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…495abacked Yes | 1c | 48,973$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…370bbacked Yes | 0c | 46,287$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 44,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.15 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a2…8471backed Yes | 0c | 42,369$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 1cpaid | +1,983.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 36,702$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c4…81cdbacked Yes | 2c | 36,312$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 33,797$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.42 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…dfa2backed Yes | 0c | 31,668$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 1c | 29,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 2c | 27,311$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.53 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…060bbacked Yes | 2c | 25,431$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 24,693$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.07 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 0c | 21,554$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…3e00backed Yes | 2c | 21,185$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…bcd2backed Yes | 1c | 18,254$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e8…3a21backed Yes | 0c | 16,926$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…af58backed Yes | 1c | 16,331$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcade…79edbacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945c…d97fbacked Yes | 1c | 14,917$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 0c | 14,856$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 1c | 14,619$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f9…a658backed Yes | 1c | 13,812$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 1c | 12,685$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…e82fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,541$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,245$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…6306backed Yes | 1c | 12,108$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 0c | 10,400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…22f8backed Yes | 2c | 10,296$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -46%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58f…f979backed Yes | 1c | 10,193$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…aae9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…d611backed Yes | 1c | 9,998$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c2…6562backed Yes | 2c | 9,954$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…e3a5backed Yes | 1c | 9,920$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed Yes | 0c | 9,876$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a7…d5c4backed Yes | 1c | 9,814$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…4d34backed Yes | 2c | 9,783$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…afb1backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3699…a16fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,993$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…05aabacked Yes | 1c | 8,865$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…a5cdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf3…986ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,494$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b1…8ce8backed Yes | 0c | 8,265$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 7,895$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…6d24backed Yes | 1c | 7,847$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabba…d3a5backed Yes | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…b9c4backed Yes | 0c | 7,573$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…0cbfbacked Yes | 2c | 7,223$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…067bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,196$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0a…d7f1backed Yes | 1c | 7,143$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 0c | 6,846$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d96…5131backed Yes | 2c | 6,199$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 2c | 6,173$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…08b3backed Yes | 2c | 5,530$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…1629backed Yes | 2c | 5,355$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…1fb0backed Yes | 2c | 5,095$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 2c | 5,047$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,034$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d2…2fc6backed Yes | 1c | 5,014$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…17f2backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5585…3ceabacked Yes | 3c | 4,988$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…c05abacked Yes | 1c | 4,973$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a9…f2f6backed Yes | 5c | 4,911$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b4…b3acbacked Yes | 2c | 4,788$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 4,744$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…a31abacked Yes | 0c | 4,485$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…f89cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,247$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…38e1backed Yes | 2c | 4,130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8732…6cb4backed Yes | 2c | 4,101$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…4bf4backed Yes | 1c | 4,087$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 4,006$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed Yes | 2c | 3,769$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…a6b2backed Yes | 1c | 3,693$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…fb50backed Yes | 2c | 3,685$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…bccfbacked Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d2…bf7cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,617$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…4566backed Yes | 3c | 3,577$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…4bf9backed Yes | 2c | 3,478$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd21f…0574backed Yes | 3c | 3,451$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…7b74backed Yes | 8c | 3,400$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 3c | 3,337$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…49f9backed Yes | 1c | 3,143$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696d…73c8backed Yes | 0c | 3,083$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 3,070$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…f962backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…4111backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…06f1backed Yes | 3c | 2,932$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 2c | 2,825$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…b532backed Yes | 4c | 2,691$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…8519backed Yes | 1c | 2,619$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f2…59e2backed Yes | 2c | 2,504$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?this page
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes won
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.