World Politics · resolved market
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x452ed4a3bc0e84654e05e485bdb28058237f1185d3f6103e9fb548789eb2ce46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,638,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $537,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,638,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d48…2852backed Yes | 0c | 357,582$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 0c | 267,002$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.34 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 219,797$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.59 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 135,065$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.19 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 112,843$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.37 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 72,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…9222backed Yes | 0c | 66,533$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ed…7c01backed Yes | 0c | 56,710$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 54,458$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…e288backed Yes | 0c | 43,172$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae14…a115backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…8b98backed Yes | 1c | 35,400$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…a3eabacked Yes | 0c | 33,548$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4b…654ebacked Yes | 0c | 32,880$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 29,600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…f28fbacked Yes | 1c | 28,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 26,485$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…09cebacked Yes | 0c | 25,020$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba3e…0f98backed Yes | 0c | 24,870$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…dc3abacked Yes | 0c | 18,333$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…0ea5backed Yes | 0c | 17,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…e453backed Yes | 0c | 16,597$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…4eb9backed Yes | 0c | 15,597$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…0464backed Yes | 0c | 15,597$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…087ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,540$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…80f3backed Yes | 1c | 13,997$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…f602backed Yes | 1c | 13,135$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…9e33backed Yes | 0c | 12,379$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3065…1c02backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8881…07ddbacked Yes | 0c | 10,333$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb650…05cdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,195$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…a266backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…e79fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,490$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cc…8378backed Yes | 0c | 9,109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066c…3753backed Yes | 0c | 8,729$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…c6f5backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…d955backed Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 8,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0e…d1ffbacked Yes | 0c | 8,250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…5095backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…07d6backed Yes | 1c | 7,958$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…542abacked Yes | 0c | 7,211$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9946…30aebacked Yes | 0c | 7,085$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…dd3cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde83…15bdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…5ec9backed Yes | 0c | 5,833$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…038cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec27…3efbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa467…9d28backed Yes | 1c | 4,708$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b5…6ce6backed Yes | 1c | 4,675$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc7…3071backed Yes | 1c | 4,658$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…0438backed Yes | 1c | 4,552$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b4…5201backed Yes | 1c | 3,882$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…0233backed Yes | 1c | 3,710$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…df92backed Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…35c1backed Yes | 0c | 3,417$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…f2adbacked Yes | 1c | 3,398$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…bd2ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…89a3backed Yes | 0c | 2,813$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410e…b9c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,633$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f3…c382backed Yes | 1c | 2,167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…47f7backed Yes | 1c | 2,090$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…7bfdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,932$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?this page
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes won
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
- Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.