TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6943…7462

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST3633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+48.8%+$16.4
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+286.2%+$904.07
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$48.38
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$63.9
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$72.35
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$168
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+33.6%+$32.7
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$922Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$432.82
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.8
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$516.41
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+224%+$643.68
Will Canada lower tariffs on the U.S. before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?backed Dan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$127
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.66
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$137
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+269.5%+$510.55
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.06
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$912Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$912.48
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.35
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,816Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+146.8%+$2,665.64
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.95
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1275%9 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+100%+$25
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$4.54
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.56
Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.6
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.12
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$16
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+25%+$4
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during the press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will Trump raise or lower tariffs on China first?backed Raise · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.97
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+127.3%+$63.64
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyukbacked Marta Kostyuk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+51.9%+$20.5
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Champions League Final: Red card issued?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$11.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump increase tariffs on China by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.