TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$186,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf472…a262backed Yes12c9,045$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.612412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes18c8,080$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.832227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes1c7,469$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.642934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes19c7,000$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.992718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dd6…5ddabacked Yes12c6,688$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.41361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick32cpaid+153.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes19c6,687$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.546526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes18c5,305$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.3511428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c4,671$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.6833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cff…7c24backed Yes15c2,162$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.01757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ed…07eabacked Yes13c2,105$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes8c2,065$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7328320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa906…bfbcbacked Yes20c2,034$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes21c1,620$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.8755618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes17c1,553$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.774544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes21c1,386$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.311338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No79c1,274$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.0512643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed No79c1,271$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes1c1,155$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153959%23 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes21c1,122$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.515817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c1,019$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49a8…cc1dbacked Yes12c1,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No77c999.63$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.2539522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e7…9948backed Yes20c976.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed No79c896.5$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.87475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4040…89b6backed Yes17c847.88$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c814.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.641,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d9d…17a9backed No77c811.78$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.711747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+115.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes5c776.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5922641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes13c753.48$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf92c…60e7backed Yes12c700$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+184.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8782…456ebacked Yes2c647.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb86a…c1d8backed Yes8c636.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc334…0e88backed Yes19c624.86$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked No77c612.83$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.721735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…2e44backed Yes14c569.25$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.531315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7c…9fd1backed Yes9c530.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7268…c903backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes8c499.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed Yes26c483.77$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.831631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No78c482.95$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1719436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54df…8823backed Yes17c472.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes24c450$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.518033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No74c403.29$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.863860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a68…57c2backed No78c400$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45bf…aa5cbacked Yes25c380$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+49.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ef…1e04backed Yes52c367.47$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes24c365.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9410452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c9…bddfbacked Yes14c365.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.11944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfef…6021backed Yes19c350$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2201…42e2backed No78c350$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-67.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes5c348.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b0…87b5backed Yes24c335.32$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69ef…2528backed Yes15c333.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes11c329.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.165225%13 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cf5…5ca2backed No80c323.99$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.081136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes14c306.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3718425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes12c303.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.365339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes18c263.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9810035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e2…1546backed No77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.74580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0aae…d826backed No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d02…b35cbacked Yes17c236$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed No79c226.49$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.591250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes16c207.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.811546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes18c207.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.271520%3 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4519328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked Yes25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes21c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83b…ebf8backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe031…a062backed Yes11c185.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6394…090dbacked Yes11c184.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf975…4ec2backed Yes19c176.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes20c170$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345335.8%19 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c156$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c149.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…fbc2backed Yes7c146.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.242828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2610…4b04backed Yes20c140$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8a…9697backed Yes9c139.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25a…d6e0backed Yes8c138.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes14c135$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.014738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb5…d369backed Yes15c131.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…710cbacked Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e45…9627backed Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbb…db08backed Yes17c115.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…20cabacked Yes24c104.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes22c103.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5132626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.513138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6179…9640backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7446…dde6backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3157…3234backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac8…2a9dbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2612533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f70…00e9backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2836…a0cdbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122b…ceb0backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…606ebacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No74c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2615238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2ac…ba11backed Yes26c99.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.99120%0 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.