Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe902490cd6a4cd44046c7a1f8bf39352d906a92bdf2e92206b8e8cdc649ac8d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 12c | 9,045$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.61 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 18c | 8,080$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.83 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 1c | 7,469$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 19c | 7,000$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.99 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…5ddabacked Yes | 12c | 6,688$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 32cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 19c | 6,687$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.54 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 18c | 5,305$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.35 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 4,671$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.68 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…7c24backed Yes | 15c | 2,162$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ed…07eabacked Yes | 13c | 2,105$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 2,065$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.73 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…bfbcbacked Yes | 20c | 2,034$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 1,620$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.87 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 17c | 1,553$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.77 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 21c | 1,386$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 79c | 1,274$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.05 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed No | 79c | 1,271$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 1c | 1,155$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 21c | 1,122$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.51 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 1,019$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…cc1dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 77c | 999.63$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.25 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e7…9948backed Yes | 20c | 976.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed No | 79c | 896.5$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4040…89b6backed Yes | 17c | 847.88$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 814.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…17a9backed No | 77c | 811.78$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 5c | 776.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 753.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…456ebacked Yes | 2c | 647.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86a…c1d8backed Yes | 8c | 636.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed Yes | 19c | 624.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 77c | 612.83$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed Yes | 14c | 569.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…9fd1backed Yes | 9c | 530.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…c903backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed Yes | 26c | 483.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 78c | 482.95$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…8823backed Yes | 17c | 472.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 24c | 450$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 74c | 403.29$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…57c2backed No | 78c | 400$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45bf…aa5cbacked Yes | 25c | 380$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…1e04backed Yes | 52c | 367.47$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 24c | 365.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…bddfbacked Yes | 14c | 365.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…6021backed Yes | 19c | 350$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed No | 78c | 350$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes | 5c | 348.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b0…87b5backed Yes | 24c | 335.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ef…2528backed Yes | 15c | 333.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 11c | 329.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…5ca2backed No | 80c | 323.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 306.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 12c | 303.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 18c | 263.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e2…1546backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…b35cbacked Yes | 17c | 236$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 79c | 226.49$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 16c | 207.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 207.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe031…a062backed Yes | 11c | 185.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…090dbacked Yes | 11c | 184.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…4ec2backed Yes | 19c | 176.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 156$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 149.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 7c | 146.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 20c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8a…9697backed Yes | 9c | 139.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…d6e0backed Yes | 8c | 138.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…d369backed Yes | 15c | 131.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…710cbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e45…9627backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…db08backed Yes | 17c | 115.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…20cabacked Yes | 24c | 104.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 22c | 103.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…9640backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7446…dde6backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3157…3234backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…2a9dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f70…00e9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ceb0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…606ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…ba11backed Yes | 26c | 99.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.