TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6179…9640

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$16.18
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+156.4%+$61
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$36.69
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$38.34
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$43.05
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$62.69
US strikes Yemen before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$31.5
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+123.2%+$104.32
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$15.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$65
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.67
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$25.5
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.71
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.6
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$61
Israel military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$26.96
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+106.1%+$282.76
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+29.4%+$30.68
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+203%+$80.4
Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+40.7%+$19.07
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+101.3%+$85.27
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$51
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+103.8%+$42.6
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+125.2%+$145.73
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.34
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Yoon in jail before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+268.6%+$187.15
North Korea missile test by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+32.2%+$26.8
Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$47
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.14
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.4
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+27.5%+$16.38
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.1
Will Han Dong-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.19
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$10.41
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopesbacked Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$30.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.02
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.