TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,122,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,129,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,122,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 908 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes78c40,935$32,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,922.556134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes35c34,701$12,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,390.8437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed No29c26,450$7,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,676.263619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No49c26,437$12,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,977.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No70c26,305$18,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,295.916262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes74c20,369$14,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,369.627462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238a…1574backed No33c19,046$6,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,348911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-76.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes41c17,640$7,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,482.823050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce3…6275backed No72c17,611$12,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,701.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes74c16,439$12,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,208.9412245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes75c15,973$12,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,949.464050%20 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d17…9558backed Yes49c15,833$7,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,087.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes67c15,707$10,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,249.9613850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No2c15,000$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.552030%6 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes36c14,855$5,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,512.2151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No48c14,571$7,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,048.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2844…10f7backed No43c13,095$5,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,589.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes21c10,988$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,712.197042.9%30 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No29c10,593$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.896516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c07…48d9backed No37c10,550$3,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,895.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e7…d29ebacked No4c10,163$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.92137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-87.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No74c10,013$7,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,379.266549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No65c9,848$6,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4116036.7%22 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6497…e879backed Yes20c9,555$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,631.52825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes68c9,538$6,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,014.2510150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No32c9,404$3,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,028.053836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes31c8,101$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5936023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No23c8,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.982642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b7…b1d3backed No37c7,884$2,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,892.3425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes64c7,775$5,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,764.728552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes47c7,250$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,828.2931241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac9e…a350backed Yes60c7,078$4,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.591181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.21per pick60cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No17c7,059$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2009535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes72c6,735$4,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.476440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes21c6,290$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,945.321361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8834…d285backed No71c6,240$4,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,432.9730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No80c6,200$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9602360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0692…10fbbacked Yes78c6,030$4,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.281643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No30c5,763$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.7635819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed No49c5,647$2,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,751825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2831…c51cbacked No4c5,622$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa52…156bbacked No55c5,553$3,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,052.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No13c5,533$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.835414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0fc…cd7abacked No43c5,531$2,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes26c5,503$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,056.522850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc81e…4ecdbacked No23c5,416$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2783…8321backed No57c5,289$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No19c5,169$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.749948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x625b…bb21backed No76c5,135$3,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,917.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed No27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35090%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8977…22ffbacked No32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes50c4,900$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.5311537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes22c4,683$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.131421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed No1c4,520$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7820617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd063…5ccdbacked Yes75c4,516$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.642378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+137.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes21c4,484$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,528.0248630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes29c4,473$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.9943212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No79c4,353$3,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.7322547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b22…f295backed No35c4,247$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes23c4,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.966254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No16c3,991$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.1420823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c3,784$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.1789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes62c3,772$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.2220336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes21c3,659$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,888.7835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3e…8e7fbacked No28c3,575$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed No35c3,355$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.441855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes55c3,298$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.75749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4428…12adbacked No70c3,244$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,268.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed No22c3,115$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes55c3,069$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.217931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…509abacked No29c3,066$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.51110%0 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1854…81eabacked Yes17c3,017$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.581650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+107%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes34c2,896$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.611136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes35c2,866$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.1812634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed Yes15c2,590$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.071216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No64c2,577$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.491457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No25c2,536$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6346532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No19c2,536$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.631323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20e…d622backed No28c2,509$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes36c2,507$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.853250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked Yes40c2,500$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4912035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes12c2,500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.994126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.999145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e45…a2c4backed Yes75c2,343$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8448…ba57backed Yes75c2,330$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c1…88e3backed No77c2,315$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.4160%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes27c2,310$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.33625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4172…6436backed Yes13c2,306$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+685%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ac…e928backed No22c2,296$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.0960%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb953…16ccbacked No70c2,199$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes75c2,179$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.661346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No57c2,148$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.126619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No42c2,141$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.785032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes78c2,105$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.451250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes56c2,084$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.0267841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No55c2,059$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.64742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No29c2,044$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.75273.7%1 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick19cpaid-94.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes74c2,000$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.251952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes68c2,000$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6308045%36 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes73c1,974$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.33458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.