TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$811,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$901,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $811,427 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5eb2…3d7fbacked No0c75,318$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.22520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-66.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…c7c1backed No4c55,374$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8917…28f3backed No1c39,650$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5800…8181backed No1c29,162$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-60.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdaa…416dbacked No0c24,250$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4180%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes69c23,710$16,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,454.6637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed No1c23,196$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…c8aabacked No1c15,195$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b0…77d6backed No1c13,287$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6d…60e0backed No1c11,678$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8e…e030backed No0c10,179$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc0…3a00backed No15c10,163$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.932548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes47c10,094$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,382.3412654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No7c10,005$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.999711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd386…1887backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No0c8,924$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.392078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf26…9970backed No0c8,390$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x295e…6813backed No1c7,778$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2955…b1d9backed No1c7,467$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8756…93acbacked No3c7,137$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5d…7315backed No1c6,866$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b7…30c2backed No8c5,185$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.9760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x550b…ca56backed No1c5,075$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f5…15a8backed No1c5,050$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No28c4,868$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.576253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No27c4,799$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.083534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c19…863ebacked No3c4,708$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3da…f230backed No0c4,340$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bee…df6dbacked No1c4,083$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No73c4,033$2,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.9510150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No9c3,741$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.961235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No1c3,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52015%3 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No5c3,388$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No22c3,300$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.864429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed No70c3,110$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1801758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc907…ef28backed No1c2,788$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.91631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…50b0backed No1c2,777$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x962c…a90ebacked No1c2,687$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No7c2,552$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.63827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes29c2,363$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.181421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e6…4e5bbacked No7c2,288$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No13c2,157$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.2335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No47c2,032$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.778552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No41c2,002$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.9620549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4003748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9161…5a53backed No1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491a…d91bbacked Yes62c1,759$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe988…8914backed No10c1,746$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f6…1e17backed No32c1,621$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes26c1,530$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.5314520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed No5c1,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f5…1d9bbacked No2c1,490$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.84911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-82.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No19c1,490$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc488…9ecdbacked No1c1,343$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cae…43d8backed No3c1,288$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes47c1,264$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.375032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f4…5e6abacked No33c1,251$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.492250%11 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x937e…db42backed No76c1,229$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.831546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2d…8f7bbacked No15c1,227$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3620…229abacked No2c1,220$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7486…2f8bbacked No1c1,197$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…1512backed No30c1,162$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-69.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7256…de57backed Yes36c1,112$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.591915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-53.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes25c1,111$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.5620823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c1,087$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf71…b756backed No1c1,040$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc784…93cdbacked No3c1,034$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No72c1,024$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.951931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be7…d440backed Yes80c1,008$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeba7…fea3backed No50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+100.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dec…16f9backed No2c994.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes66c878.9$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.341942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+102.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc443…60fcbacked No11c873.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes66c861.62$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.034883.3%40 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No31c850$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.53053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes51c802.72$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.5477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No8c800$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34e8…6ea3backed No13c788.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-82.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes77c752.81$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.4367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes74c736.04$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.022222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No6c723.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7511537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No34c706.3$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9421259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No15c704.76$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0112932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0b…efaabacked No2c699.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf55…ba75backed Yes40c605.74$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.441947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…decbbacked No6c597.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.71933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9c…f9bebacked No4c587.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes73c557.01$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5646…1044backed No7c555.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed Yes55c527.17$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.213452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…1a01backed No2c526.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked No51c519.22$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.771625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes73c516.06$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4611136.9%41 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes3c509.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88db…3843backed No70c503.73$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.441931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c0…a976backed No10c503.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4051…0a90backed No33c500.63$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.321118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes17c500$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4131040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf3f…99d4backed No4c469.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x576d…72edbacked Yes50c455.08$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.