TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Iran before 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,743 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x614d…1546backed No30c21,491$6,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,465.6513850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x922f…69d4backed Yes65c14,770$9,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,135.541735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes70c11,772$8,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.184156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No43c10,105$4,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,339.3735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…75bfbacked Yes68c9,781$6,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,114.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes65c7,348$4,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.236942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes72c6,969$5,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.322828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes52c6,696$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,245.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+193.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No26c3,614$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.024126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No36c3,583$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.2331649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No36c3,500$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2602458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…757fbacked Yes77c3,315$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.42850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No31c2,950$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.9337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No10c2,712$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.469831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No24c2,441$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.0515234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No1c2,440$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3113629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes65c2,332$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.155248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No26c2,270$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.128750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No36c2,222$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.5464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes64c1,971$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.572740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes77c1,899$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.381040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes68c1,711$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.7921160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No30c1,622$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3603225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No31c1,411$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.172748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No32c1,250$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.59145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61a3…b145backed Yes62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+68%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes61c1,185$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.8716246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No27c1,050$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.520336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No29c1,009$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.173228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25031241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4109637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2208834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb49f…105bbacked No34c880$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012c…c821backed Yes66c880$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bac…6634backed Yes57c878.38$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa461…4573backed No38c843.79$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes57c837.37$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.33336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes68c834.21$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.9518151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No24c800$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18816739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed Yes68c800$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.53357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Yes75c751$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.752347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6343…bf0abacked Yes77c750$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.295834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes77c663.7$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.655032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No34c661.35$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.652532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5d…f397backed Yes76c654.06$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.062035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x754a…b519backed Yes78c641.95$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db1…46a4backed Yes54c635$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.052634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No47c599.09$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No27c595$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.678617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes71c550$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22515743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked No33c454.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010052%52 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ff4…b7c5backed No45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a4a…fff2backed No31c418.83$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.6wins-0.45per pick58cpaid-82.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes67c413.59$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.142441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes76c350.68$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.393151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dcc…4820backed No26c329.55$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No27c303.03$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No34c299.15$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.18837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes73c293$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2214129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x667f…ccbebacked No28c271.45$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No38c263.56$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.321947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd58…9542backed Yes65c261.79$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.634540%18 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked No36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.54010%4 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed No49c238.07$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.373644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No42c236.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes73c230.28$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.874639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked No44c220$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.62516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes53c215$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7540…0d08backed Yes63c213$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.81742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes66c209.24$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.143250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf383…8b45backed Yes78c205.57$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.571844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7cc0…6278backed Yes65c200.98$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.981978.9%15 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick52cpaid+72.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5112932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aeb…cb83backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884957.1%28 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2522…fd27backed Yes70c185.92$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.871060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb17…5d7bbacked Yes77c181.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+25.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed Yes64c171.53$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.162065%13 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No22c160.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3631719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes73c152.85$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.824883.3%40 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes66c150.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.681361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.51540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No20c138.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2726616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36bb…e437backed Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes68c122.32$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbec…8146backed Yes69c121.93$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd592…b119backed Yes75c114.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.853148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes74c101.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.792850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3919829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295570.9%39 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.352846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-30.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388351.8%43 W · 40 L+10.8wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+47.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.