TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$285,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,964 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd44e…67e2backed No53c22,621$11,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,933.9914456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes79c12,675$9,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,712.8924258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes47c10,887$5,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,757.521346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No34c7,580$2,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.962850%14 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No60c6,026$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.812547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No56c5,153$2,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,907.389037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked No15c5,116$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.993574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed No55c5,084$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,785.163565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes49c5,050$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.453231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,904$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.885327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No0c4,762$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8213910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c4,321$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.83712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes73c4,144$3,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.5414147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0def…0674backed No18c4,066$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No19c3,484$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.5814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No38c3,344$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.8314920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes71c3,206$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.587525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6465…e38fbacked No41c3,180$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.285461.1%33 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes50c2,917$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.519413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd46…0545backed Yes37c2,874$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.28540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No33c2,847$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.098355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c5…7a13backed No53c2,762$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.311855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes58c2,679$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.457851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813a…acb1backed Yes52c2,615$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.443016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked No43c2,613$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.885742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf289…2415backed Yes43c2,600$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.141816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes56c2,480$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.5435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No36c2,387$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.6515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No54c2,369$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.021225%3 W · 9 L-4.1wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-64.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x23e0…66b6backed Yes42c2,359$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No34c2,345$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.5423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No28c2,309$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.541414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+284.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No38c2,279$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.364450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No12c2,256$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.969962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No48c2,245$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.8426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes54c2,241$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.3911647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4222…8aa7backed Yes53c2,200$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.942347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes68c2,100$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.4811050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.993253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No50c1,957$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.533218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes43c1,811$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.1112830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf747…f687backed No46c1,741$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7540…0d08backed Yes54c1,611$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.812634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes44c1,594$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.728045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e9e…d936backed Yes58c1,542$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.331241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes46c1,522$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.7815029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed No56c1,498$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.421643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fce…33f8backed Yes40c1,470$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.831822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes48c1,420$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.5913622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51b5…9975backed No68c1,418$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.744163.4%26 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No46c1,413$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.4310241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed No60c1,309$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.811573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+45%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2618…0a87backed No27c1,290$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No1c1,274$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed No56c1,241$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes48c1,228$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.374746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No38c1,200$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46215451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.114358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffb6…e64bbacked Yes50c1,096$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No31c1,054$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.49360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f3…99e9backed No1c1,032$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4241…4da7backed No8c1,001$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.291225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes43c999.97$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.981136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed Yes47c983.05$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.49837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed Yes46c948.12$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.243256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No19c937.17$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5526318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9188…f4efbacked Yes43c931.39$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.391540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cdc…27bebacked Yes44c904.28$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.28714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a6…8bc8backed No25c860.81$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.093554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+54.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x933b…ba50backed No29c813.2$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes40c800$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48015125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes68c799.99$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.5139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No19c763.91$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.582931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c7…b576backed Yes57c728.51$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.83540%14 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes49c706.09$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.8530837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes46c700$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3812433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes45c699.97$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.997736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5bc…c11abacked No44c645.12$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0122…159cbacked Yes57c619.2$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.22123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e9c…fb5dbacked No35c609.07$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.081631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes50c601.74$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.789518.9%18 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes42c596.98$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.1313429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59a…dd69backed Yes39c591.68$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.591758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Yes66c590$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.415461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x384f…0874backed No18c553.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes79c545$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.351957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed No19c516.37$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3608247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…c4ccbacked Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed Yes46c500$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2682157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d7…6932backed Yes48c481.51$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.311020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x069f…b749backed Yes53c434.93$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.932744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f20…6352backed Yes58c428.32$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.324100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+141.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes78c424.71$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.384839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked No63c408.45$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2562520%5 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes46c408.04$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.4926238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed No63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524235.7%15 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes39c400$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.83658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+41.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes46c394.99$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.956450%32 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff73…a11dbacked No34c389.9$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.143557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.