Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a49d5b63ba20b899ebd22215daa5a9c8d21048af9b8b8300ce5a80c9d718971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $285,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 53c | 22,621$11,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,933.99 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 79c | 12,675$9,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,712.89 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes | 47c | 10,887$5,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,757.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 34c | 7,580$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 60c | 6,026$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.8 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 56c | 5,153$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.38 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked No | 15c | 5,116$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.99 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 55c | 5,084$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.16 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 49c | 5,050$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.45 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,904$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 4,762$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 4,321$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 73c | 4,144$3,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.54 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…0674backed No | 18c | 4,066$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 19c | 3,484$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.58 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 38c | 3,344$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.83 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 71c | 3,206$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.58 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 41c | 3,180$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.28 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 50c | 2,917$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.51 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…0545backed Yes | 37c | 2,874$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 33c | 2,847$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.09 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 53c | 2,762$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 58c | 2,679$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.45 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 52c | 2,615$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.44 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 43c | 2,613$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.88 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 43c | 2,600$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.14 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 56c | 2,480$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.54 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 36c | 2,387$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.65 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 54c | 2,369$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…66b6backed Yes | 42c | 2,359$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 34c | 2,345$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.54 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 28c | 2,309$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.54 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +284.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 38c | 2,279$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.36 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 12c | 2,256$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.96 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 2,245$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.84 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 54c | 2,241$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.39 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…8aa7backed Yes | 53c | 2,200$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.94 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 68c | 2,100$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.48 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 50c | 1,957$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.53 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 43c | 1,811$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.11 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed No | 46c | 1,741$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 54c | 1,611$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.81 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,594$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.72 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 58c | 1,542$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 46c | 1,522$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.78 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 56c | 1,498$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 40c | 1,470$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.83 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 48c | 1,420$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.59 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 68c | 1,418$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.74 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 46c | 1,413$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.43 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 60c | 1,309$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.81 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2618…0a87backed No | 27c | 1,290$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 1c | 1,274$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 56c | 1,241$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 48c | 1,228$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.37 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 38c | 1,200$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…e64bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,096$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 31c | 1,054$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.4 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…99e9backed No | 1c | 1,032$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed No | 8c | 1,001$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 43c | 999.97$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 47c | 983.05$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 46c | 948.12$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.24 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 937.17$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…f4efbacked Yes | 43c | 931.39$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…27bebacked Yes | 44c | 904.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8bc8backed No | 25c | 860.81$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.09 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed No | 29c | 813.2$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 40c | 800$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 799.99$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.51 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 19c | 763.91$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 57c | 728.51$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.8 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 706.09$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.85 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 46c | 700$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 45c | 699.97$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.99 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bc…c11abacked No | 44c | 645.12$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 57c | 619.2$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…fb5dbacked No | 35c | 609.07$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 50c | 601.74$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.78 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 42c | 596.98$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.13 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…dd69backed Yes | 39c | 591.68$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.59 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 66c | 590$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…0874backed No | 18c | 553.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 79c | 545$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 19c | 516.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…c4ccbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed Yes | 46c | 500$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d7…6932backed Yes | 48c | 481.51$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…b749backed Yes | 53c | 434.93$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…6352backed Yes | 58c | 428.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 78c | 424.71$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked No | 63c | 408.45$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 46c | 408.04$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.49 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 39c | 400$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 46c | 394.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.95 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 34c | 389.9$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.