Us Politics · resolved market
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5374a734024814a7e91a50b025cf0924bcf99756f40384beb260ede9322ca28f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,796,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,704,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,796,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,620 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 50c | 114,332$57,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,150.66 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 42c | 79,737$33,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,198.58 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 45c | 64,752$29,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,433.33 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 55c | 61,467$33,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,955.88 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 13c | 54,697$7,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,377.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae29…d0c3backed Yes | 26c | 49,236$12,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,801.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…417fbacked No | 74c | 49,236$36,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,801.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 43c | 44,955$19,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,354.54 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…8553backed Yes | 62c | 40,047$24,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,860.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 70c | 34,684$24,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,332.24 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98b0…1d3fbacked Yes | 26c | 28,612$7,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,439.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…dbf3backed No | 74c | 28,612$21,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,439.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…e6bcbacked Yes | 43c | 27,442$11,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,788.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 49c | 27,428$13,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,546.56 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 52c | 26,724$13,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,881.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 56c | 25,880$14,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,556.78 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 45c | 25,745$11,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,585.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 39c | 24,993$9,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,682.22 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked No | 45c | 23,249$10,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,824.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 42c | 22,279$9,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,463.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 53c | 21,524$11,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,509.64 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 60c | 21,196$12,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,562.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 50c | 20,720$10,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,341.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3d…742fbacked Yes | 50c | 18,832$9,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,433.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0485…4b40backed No | 67c | 17,602$11,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,836.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 49c | 16,407$8,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,018.63 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…e1b5backed Yes | 61c | 16,308$10,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,011 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 59c | 16,000$9,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,562.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 38c | 16,000$6,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,140.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 42c | 15,943$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700.21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed No | 52c | 15,783$8,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,611.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 48c | 15,642$7,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,445.79 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 42c | 15,571$6,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,525.01 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 32c | 15,440$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,007.55 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 50c | 15,109$7,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,581.59 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked No | 43c | 15,069$6,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,557.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 57c | 14,961$8,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,402.83 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…fea3backed No | 73c | 14,164$10,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,845.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed Yes | 50c | 13,861$6,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,984.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 39c | 12,299$4,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,556.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…62d0backed Yes | 52c | 11,840$6,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,106.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed No | 71c | 10,902$7,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,198.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 58c | 10,036$5,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,807.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 51c | 10,000$5,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,120.56 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ae…a0cbbacked Yes | 38c | 10,000$3,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,769.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 39c | 9,883$3,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,861.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 46c | 9,746$4,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 54c | 9,726$5,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,521.27 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 37c | 9,442$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450.97 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…a779backed No | 77c | 8,993$6,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed No | 59c | 8,943$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 55c | 8,933$4,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,978.68 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Yes | 64c | 8,382$5,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,389.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0b…560abacked Yes | 61c | 8,224$5,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,011.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked No | 40c | 8,096$3,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,864.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 42c | 8,090$3,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,426.65 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 66c | 7,580$4,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 49c | 7,517$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,655.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 7,318$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.91 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 51c | 7,315$3,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,716.8 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 30c | 7,291$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.22 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…cc73backed No | 69c | 7,084$4,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d1fdbacked Yes | 53c | 6,849$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 55c | 6,780$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,055.39 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…a350backed No | 40c | 6,777$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,089.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 55c | 6,653$3,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,627.92 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 36c | 6,390$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…e0b8backed No | 42c | 6,359$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…0ac6backed Yes | 32c | 6,300$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 47c | 5,733$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.07 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 46c | 5,726$2,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 49c | 5,634$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.87 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…72edbacked Yes | 39c | 5,436$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 64c | 5,400$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,453 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…2f04backed No | 73c | 5,373$3,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 45c | 5,289$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.49 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16b…d883backed Yes | 48c | 5,269$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 46c | 5,254$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.67 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 49c | 5,179$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 33c | 5,172$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.42 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 5,106$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.09 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked No | 57c | 5,000$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.66 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,882$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -83%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…3a08backed Yes | 51c | 4,882$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed No | 63c | 4,837$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 22c | 4,723$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 58c | 4,705$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.06 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 45c | 4,628$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…606cbacked No | 56c | 4,503$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 34c | 4,478$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.56 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…c0efbacked Yes | 29c | 4,406$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 60c | 4,369$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.56 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 42c | 4,315$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 45c | 4,177$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.24 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…d256backed No | 60c | 4,102$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 50c | 4,087$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 27c | 4,081$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.4 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 43c | 4,061$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.07 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bf…e477backed Yes | 50c | 4,023$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…ac9cbacked No | 60c | 3,903$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.