Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-84?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13b540894ff7874a41616efbb48a1989e08380d644403678c851558a5f6c9d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 5,403$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 11c | 3,350$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,485$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…357cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,416$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 72c | 1,405$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.7 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 42c | 1,349$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,286$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 3c | 1,054$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 31c | 852.1$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…562cbacked Yes | 16c | 444.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 21c | 387.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 38c | 374.93$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes | 28c | 350.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 34c | 349.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4a…739cbacked Yes | 18c | 324.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 316.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 62c | 283.91$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 279.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 22c | 259.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 235.45$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 13c | 227.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 77c | 172.71$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 76c | 166.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 19c | 160.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 51c | 149.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 19c | 147.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 47c | 125.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…b304backed Yes | 26c | 119.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 74c | 107.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…d097backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 46c | 73.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked No | 69c | 72.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…9640backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 27c | 49.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 79c | 48.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…713cbacked No | 73c | 41.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…fb3abacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…0cc0backed Yes | 55c | 27.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd168…f3cfbacked No | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-84?this page
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be 95 or higher?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75-79?Yes won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 75?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.